A Tennessee House race, once a safe Republican seat, is now a toss-up, raising GOP fears about their slim majority and Trump’s influence.
WASHINGTON: A special US House election in a traditionally solid Republican district has become unexpectedly competitive, posing a test of former President Donald Trump’s political sway.
The race for Tennessee’s 7th District, which Trump won by 22 points in 2024, is now considered a toss-up according to recent polling.
A Democratic victory or even a narrow Republican win would send shockwaves through Washington, deepening GOP anxieties about losing their paper-thin House majority in 2026.
“We’re literally three people away from losing the majority,” said Tennessee Republican Congressman Tim Burchett.
Republican panic follows a string of recent Democratic victories in state races across Virginia, New Jersey, and New York.
Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson held a tele-rally on Monday to support the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps.
Van Epps, a retired special-operations pilot, is running as a Trump loyalist focused on border security and law enforcement.
He faces Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn, a progressive who has advocated for grocery-tax relief and healthcare access.
Republicans have attacked Behn over social media posts from 2020 where she shared “defund the police” slogans.
Trump told voters to reject Behn, claiming she “hates Christianity” and “hates country music.”
The latest Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48% to Behn’s 46%, within the margin of error.
Early polls in October had shown Van Epps leading by as many as eight points.
Republican insiders now predict a much narrower five-point victory, a significant drop from the previous incumbent’s landslide win.
Both parties have flooded the district with money, with Trump-aligned groups spending RM 2.4 million and Democratic groups investing RM 1.9 million.
Early voting is believed to have favoured Behn due to strong turnout in Nashville, while election-day voting is expected to lean Republican.
