Analysts say BN, PH and Kadazan-based parties unlikely to lead state govt as amended rules and political alignments consolidate contest around two main coalitions
PETALING JAYA: The Sabah State Election is heading towards a high-stakes showdown between Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Warisan, with political analysts saying the next state government will almost certainly be led by one of the two blocs.
Led by caretaker chief minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, GRS enters the race as the incumbent coalition and the most prominent face of the pro-Unity government camp.
Despite the presence of Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and several Kadazan-based parties, experts say shifts in voter sentiment, bloc alignments and recent constitutional amendments have effectively narrowed the contest to a two-coalition race.
Professor James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said although Sabah politics has long been known for its volatility, most major parties are now broadly aligned with the federal Unity government, leaving voters with little ideological distinction between rivals.
Both the GRS and the opposition blocs of Warisan and Umno ultimately support the Unity government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, although GRS – under Hajiji’s stewardship – has positioned itself as the coalition best able to maintain federal-state cooperation.
“So it makes no difference to Anwar,” Chin told theSun, adding that the national political implications of Sabah’s election were limited compared with its local significance.
For Chin, the choice facing Sabahans is stark.
“The only game in town is that it will either be a GRS or Warisan victory,” he said, adding that BN and Umno have “no chance” of forming the government.
Similarly, he said PH is not contesting enough seats to be considered a viable contender.
“Pakatan, as you know, also has no chance because they’re not contesting even half the seats.”
Chin also pointed to a crucial constitutional amendment passed two years ago which reshaped how a state government can be formed.
Under the revised law, the Yang di-Pertua Negeri has wide discretion to appoint any assemblyman he believes commands majority confidence – significantly altering coalition negotiations or post-poll manoeuvring.
This change, he said, places a higher burden on Warisan, particularly due to strained ties between its president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal and the current Yang di-Pertua Negeri Tun Musa Aman.
“Everybody knows that Shafie and Musa do not get along.
“That’s why Warisan has to win a clear majority. Otherwise, Musa will choose somebody else to form the government.”
Chin added that the rural interior remains unpredictable due to longstanding fragmentation among Kadazan-based parties competing for dominance in their traditional heartlands.
“The rural interior is all about which Kadazan party will become the dominant party. But the Kadazan are split for many reasons.
“Since losing power in the 1994 political collapse that ended PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah) rule, the Kadazan political bloc has struggled to regain a meaningful role in government formation. Since then the Kadazans have been totally marginalised.”
Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said she expects the existing pro-Unity government bloc to retain control, arguing that many Sabah voters prioritise development and prefer alignment with Putrajaya.
“I think the existing bloc will continue to form the government, meaning the pro-Unity government bloc.
“Voters in Sabah still want to prioritise development, which depends on cooperation between the state and federal government.”
Syaza said she will be monitoring BN’s performance closely, especially in seats where it faces GRS head-on, noting that Hajiji’s incumbency advantage and visibility as chief minister may influence voter preferences in mixed constituencies.
“While GRS has governed since 2020, BN performed strongly in the 2022 general election, securing several parliamentary constituencies in Sabah. I want to see whether that trend continues for BN.”
She also expects a difficult race for Warisan, predicting the party could lose ground as some voters choose incumbents they perceive as providing stability while others may respond to Warisan’s enduring “Sabah for Sabahan” narrative.
“It will be difficult for Warisan now. I want to see whether interior voters choose the incumbent who brings stability, or a party stronger in delivering the ‘Sabah for Sabahan’ message.”
Analysts added that Hajiji’s leadership and GRS’ record in governing since 2020 will likely become central themes of the campaign, with the coalition expected to emphasise continuity and stability as its core pitch.
Both analysts agree that the battle lines point clearly to a decisive contest between GRS and Warisan, setting the stage for one of Sabah’s most consequential elections in recent years.
