PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) has projected a 316% to 525% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in air passenger traffic for FY2022, representing between 32.6 million and 49 million air travel passengers, marking a 30-45% recovery from the pre-pandemic air passenger traffic levels in 2019.
Additionally, airlines are expected to gradually expand seat capacity as pent-up travel demand and accrued savings drive passenger traffic growth in 2022.
In its industry report Waypoint, Mavcom observed early signs of recovery for the local aviation sector in September and October 2021 as evident from the 56.6% and 190.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) growth in air passenger traffic. Air passenger traffic for both months stood at 5.3% and 14.9% recorded in the same months of 2019.
Total air passenger traffic for FY2021 is expected to be closer to the commission’s best-case scenario forecast of 6.9 million to 7.8 million of air travel passengers.
Mavcom executive chairman Datuk Seri Saripuddin Kasim is heartened by the easing of travel restrictions, travel bubbles, the reopening of international borders in light of Malaysia’s rapid vaccination rollout, as well as the recent Vaccinated Travel Lane to Singapore.
“These initiatives have allowed for tourism activities to restart with early indications pointing towards a positive outlook for Malaysia’s air passenger traffic in 2022,” he said in a statement.
Nonetheless, Saripuddin acknowledged the sector’s journey to full recovery is still far from over, as aviation players may still face significant challenges ahead with the rise in Brent crude oil and jet fuel prices that could impact operational costs, as well as possible new Covid-19 outbreaks including the fast-spreading Omicron variant.
“However, we remain hopeful that the industry will continue to make progress, particularly as the Malaysian government considers reopening mutual borders with several countries.”
The Langkawi domestic travel bubble, which commenced on Sept 16, saw a significant increase of domestic air passengers in September and October 2021 by 2,411% m-o-m and 261.4% m-o-m, respectively.
Mavcom foresees the recent easing of border restrictions for international travellers is expected to further support the growth in air passenger traffic.
Meanwhile, demand for air cargo remains resilient as Malaysia’s air cargo volume in terms of total Freight Tonne Kilometre (FTK) recorded a robust growth of 19.7 % y-o-y in Q3’21.
Mavcom expects air cargo to remain vital to the industry for the remainder of 2021 and in 2022. For 2022, air cargo traffic is expected to grow by between 3.9% and 6.7% y-o-y, which translates into 20.8 billion to 21.6 billion FTK underpinned by the progress of vaccination programmes, strong growth of e-commerce, electrical and electronics as well as demand from Malaysia’s main trading partners.
