Iran aims to consolidate influence in Iraq through parliamentary elections as regional leverage weakens after Gaza conflict and Israeli strikes
BAGHDAD: Iran is closely monitoring Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections on November 11 as it seeks to maintain influence over its neighbour following reduced regional leverage during the Gaza war.
Recent years have seen Iran-backed groups including Palestinian militants Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Huthis suffer significant losses from Israeli military actions.
Iran experienced an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June with brief US participation and lost a major ally through Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow in Syria last year.
Weakened regionally, Tehran intends to consolidate its gains in Iraq, which has served as an anchor of Iranian influence since the 2003 US invasion.
Iran exerts power in Baghdad through Shiite parties that play crucial roles in appointing prime ministers, including current leader Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, alongside allied armed factions.
Political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari stated that Tehran maintains influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power in Iraq.
Iraq has consistently navigated a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington while serving as fertile ground for proxy battles.
Pro-Iranian groups claimed responsibility for attacks on US positions in Iraq early in the Gaza war, prompting American retaliatory strikes.
Those groups notably abstained from participating in the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict even after Washington joined the bombing campaign.
Analyst Munqith Dagher observed that Iran no longer holds the position to impose its conditions regionally.
The director of IIACSS think tank added that Iran’s diminished position doesn’t preclude continued attempts to exert influence.
The 2021 general election saw influential Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s faction win the most seats before withdrawing from parliament.
Iraq’s legislature is currently controlled by the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework coalition that brought Sudani to power.
Sadr has refused to participate in what he described as a flawed election dominated by sectarian, ethnic and partisan interests.
The influential cleric has called on his supporters to boycott the upcoming November vote.
These elections will mark Iraq’s sixth parliamentary vote since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
Public enthusiasm for voting appears to be declining significantly across Iraq.
Chatham House predicts participation may fall to the lowest level since the 2003 invasion.
The think tank added that Iraqis increasingly view elections as performative acts with little impact on governance rather than opportunities to influence policy.
More than 21 million voters are eligible to elect 329 lawmakers in the ballot that will pave the way for appointing a new president and prime minister.
Iraq’s political system traditionally allocates the prime minister role to a Shiite, the presidency to a Kurd, and the parliament speaker position to a Sunni.
Observers also highlighted the significant influence of the United States in the electoral process.
Former Sudani adviser Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie noted a real American desire to change Iraq’s domestic political landscape to reduce Iranian influence.
Washington has sanctioned Iraqis accused of helping Tehran evade US sanctions while strengthening its economic presence through oil, technology and healthcare contracts.
Analyst Tamer Badawi said Washington expects the next prime minister to deliver tangible steps limiting Iranian influence regardless of electoral outcomes.
The RUSI analyst told AFP that the United States doesn’t want Iran-aligned groups retaining operational autonomy.
Badawi added that Washington opposes Iran using Iraq as a channel to resell oil products or secure hard currency access.
The United States maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq alongside 900 more in Syria as part of the international coalition against Islamic State.
New US special envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya insisted on the importance of a fully sovereign Iraq free from malign external interference including from Iran and its proxies.
Savaya stated last month on X that armed groups operating outside state authority have no place in Iraq.
The upcoming election will include the autonomous Kurdistan region where rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan remains fierce.
At least 25% of parliamentary seats must go to women according to quota systems that also reserve nine seats for minorities.
More than 7,700 candidates, nearly one-third of them women, are running for election in the country of approximately 46 million people. – AFP
