Sabah election expected to be highly fragmented, with analysts predicting federal-brokered talks and a neutral CM candidate emerging.
PETALING JAYA: A potential “compromise chief minister” could emerge as the decisive factor in enabling Sabah’s political blocs to form a government after the state election.
Universiti Malaya senior lecturer in political science, public administration and development studies Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub told theSun that he believes the Sabah state election is set to produce one of the most fragmented outcomes in the state’s contemporary political history.
The political analyst said there is a possibility that no coalition would secure a simple majority without negotiations brokered at the federal level.
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Speaking on the state’s shifting political landscape, Mohammad Tawfik said Sabah has long been known for its dynamic and unpredictable political realignments, pointing that in 2020, the balance of power changed overnight.
“Sabah is indeed known for its dynamic history and surprising political shifts. In 2020, the majority held by Tun Musa Aman moved to Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal in just one night, making Warisan the new government. This time, I expect the political uncertainty to intensify,” he said.
Mohammad Tawfik said none of the major coalitions, including Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) or Warisan are likely to obtain the 37 seats required to form a simple majority on their own.
“I foresee a situation in which no alliance wins dominantly or reaches the simple majority threshold. Consequently, none may be able to immediately offer a stable coalition for the formation of the next state government.”
He predicts that the election could culminate in a prolonged stalemate unless swift intervention comes from the federal government.
“There will almost certainly be an immediate solution attempted through federal involvement to expedite the formation of the state government. And in such circumstances, a compromise candidate would emerge as the ‘saviour’ figure,” he said.
Among the names attracting significant attention is Home Ministry former secretary-general Datuk Ruji Ubi, who is contesting the Merotai seat.
Mohammad Tawfik believes Ruji’s sudden appearance on the ground is no coincidence, suggesting a strategic move coordinated at the federal level.
“The Merotai seat will be a major focus. I see him as a potential compromise chief minister candidate. He is a former secretary-general who was unexpectedly fielded in this Sabah state election. There must be a tactical strategy behind the federal leadership decision to field him,” he added.
The academic also expressed excitement over what he described as “giant-versus-giant” contests across several constituencies.
Among them are Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, who is facing a five-cornered contest in Sulaman; Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin who is facing a six-cornered fight in Lamag; Datuk Ewon Benedick in Kadamaian and Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal in Senallang, all of whom are political heavyweights with strong grassroots machinery.
However, Mohammad Tawfik maintained that Merotai is the race to watch, not only because of Ruji’s administrative background but also due to the possibility that he could emerge as a neutral figure acceptable to multiple political blocs.
He said Sabah’s political culture has long shown that outcomes are not determined solely by party alignments but also by individual negotiations, leadership acceptability and behind-the-scenes bargaining.
In such circumstances, a candidate like Ruji could provide the neutrality needed to form a functional state government.
“In a situation in which no coalition achieves dominance, a compromise chief minister is often the only viable route.”
