‘Decision would have minimal implications on stability of Unity govt’
PETALING JAYA: Analysts say the potential departure of MIC from Barisan Nasional (BN) is unlikely to drastically shift the political landscape despite the historic role of the party in the coalition.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the influence and electoral support of MIC have waned over the years, making any move largely symbolic.
“Had this decision been made 10 years ago when BN was at its peak, MIC leaving would have had a very significant effect.
“Now, it would not have a negative impact. In fact, it could even be positive, whether MIC decides to go solo or join Perikatan Nasional (PN).
“Essentially, BN would remain largely unaffected because MIC currently has very little support from Indian constituents.”
He added that the decision would have minimal implications for the stability of the Unity government.
“The MIC president has already stated that if the party were to leave BN, they would still support the Unity government. So there is nothing new. They are not planning to pull out.”
He cited internal dissatisfaction within MIC as a key motivator.
“The top leaders may eventually leave BN because they feel they have no choice. Their dissatisfaction is understandable as Umno prioritises its own members first when allocating seats,” he said, citing Sabah, where MCA secured seats while MIC received none.
When asked if the move could trigger a domino effect among other BN parties, Azmi was sceptical.
“MCA knows its best strategy is to stick with BN and wait for Umno to gain political strength so it could negotiate for more seats.
“MIC leaving is unlikely to prompt similar actions from other component parties.”
On how the decision might affect parliamentary arithmetic in the next general election, he said the outcome remains uncertain.
“MIC may leave soon, possibly within a few weeks, depending on the reaction of BN.
“Currently, the party holds two parliamentary seats largely supported by Umno voters. I’m sure Umno would contest these seats if MIC aligns itself with Pakatan Harapan (PH) or another coalition. MIC needs to carefully calculate who its ally is; who its ‘big brother’ would be, whether it is PN or PH.
“Even so, MIC does not have the bargaining power to demand winnable seats in either scenario.”
International Islamic University Malaysia and Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said the exit of MIC would be more symbolic than numerical, affecting BN’s multi-ethnic image rather than parliamentary numbers.
“It is one of the founding parties of the alliance and BN, and leaving would turn BN into a mostly Umno Malay-centric coalition with little influence on non-Malay voters.”
She added that political stability would not be significantly affected, as MIC has pledged continued support for the government of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
“The biggest impact is on BN itself. It would be seen as weakening or declining, potentially losing credibility among its traditional Indian voters and its multi-ethnic identity.”
She also said MIC’s consideration of leaving BN highlights that component parties are not unconditionally tied to Umno.
“This move gives MIC more leverage with PN, which is looking to expand beyond Malay voters. For MIC, the key calculation is ensuring their conservative Indian voters feel seen and heard.
“Symbolically, PN benefits, but the coalition remains largely Malay-centric.”
Syaza said PN may be more willing to engage with MIC than BN, giving the party greater room to negotiate.
“MIC also has less to lose than MCA as its base includes conservative Indians comfortable working with PAS, while urban Indians generally prefer PH.
“MIC may also see PN gaining strength among Malay voters compared with BN, so joining now could be advantageous. Ultimately, this is about ensuring their voters feel represented.”
