China’s solar expansion is set to decelerate in 2026 due to new market-based pricing rules, with growth expected to rebound from 2027 but not reach recent record highs.
BEIJING: China’s record-breaking solar power expansion is projected to slow significantly in 2026.
The Solar Industry Association in Beijing attributed the expected deceleration to a new government regulation linking electricity prices to the market.
The world’s largest solar market added a record 315 gigawatts of capacity last year.
The association now forecasts new capacity in 2026 will be between 180 and 240 gigawatts.
Previously, operators sold electricity from solar or wind parks at state-set prices.
A new central government rule now requires electricity to be sold at market-determined prices.
Association chairman Wang Bohua predicted this change will prompt caution from operators.
The association believes solar expansion will likely pick up again from 2027 onwards.
However, estimates show added capacity will not reach the 2025 record by the end of the decade.
China remains the world’s largest user of coal alongside its renewable push.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, the country commissioned coal-fired plants with a combined output of 78 gigawatts in 2025.
One gigawatt can supply several hundred thousand households annually.
China’s coal chemical industry, which converts coal into chemicals for products like plastic, is also booming.
This reduces reliance on imported oil, a key raw material.
