Mexico’s economy minister insists the USMCA trade pact will be extended, despite scepticism from former US President Donald Trump and analyst predictions.
MEXICO CITY: Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard (pic) expressed confidence that the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement will be extended.
Ebrard stated the three nations are in the treaty review phase and must conclude by July 1.
“We have made good progress on all the points that concern each of the parties,” he said during a press conference.
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His comments follow renewed scepticism from former US President Donald Trump about the pact’s value.
“There’s no real advantage to it, it’s irrelevant,” Trump said earlier this week.
The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and is crucial to Mexico’s economy.
The treaty requires a joint review this year for a 16-year extension, or it will face annual reviews.
Many analysts expect negotiations to extend late into 2026, beyond the July 1 technical deadline.
They suggest Trump will likely avoid extending the treaty before the US midterm elections in November.
Trump’s recent threats of military action against cartels have added uncertainty to bilateral relations.
Former diplomat Alexia Bautista said Ebrard is betting on a best-case scenario with a closing window.
“The risk is that Trump injects security into the process, turning the trade review into a far more political negotiation,” Bautista said.
Pedro Casas of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico expects US tariffs on Mexican exports to persist.
The US has imposed 50% duties on steel and aluminium and a 25% tariff on cars from Mexico.
Casas predicts a treaty extension but with steep tariffs remaining on key Mexican exports.
“I think the most likely scenario is a positive review process where we agree to extend the treaty for another 16 years, but steep tariffs still remain on Mexican exports that undermine the strength of the agreement,” he said. – Reuters
