Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have transformed since 2015 Paris attacks, with Africa now the epicentre of terrorism and homegrown threats replacing commandos
PARIS: A decade after deadly attacks in Paris, the world’s most notorious jihadist groups have significantly evolved while maintaining their global security threat.
Islamic State and Al-Qaeda branches continue posing dangers worldwide, with Africa emerging as their primary operational centre according to security analysts.
Both groups previously maintained strong central leadership that trained commandos for European attacks like the November 13, 2015 Paris strikes that killed 130 people.
Today IS has lost its sanctuary in Syria and Iraq while both groups’ emblematic leaders were killed in US strikes.
“The structure of the two major command centres is considerably weakened,” said an unnamed French security source.
Marc Hecker of French research centre IFRI noted jihadist movement reconfiguration with particularly active franchises.
He added “the ultimate strategic objective, for both Al-Qaeda and Daesh, has not changed: the establishment of a global caliphate.”
The European threat has shifted from projected attacks to homegrown atrocities inspired by jihadist movements.
France’s national anti-terrorism prosecutor Olivier Christen highlighted “individuals who are on French soil, have never left, and do not necessarily have direct links with terrorist organisations.”
Jihadist groups now focus operations primarily in Africa, the Middle East and Asia rather than Europe.
Whereas 2015’s jihadism hub centred on Iraq and Syria, current IS numbers there range between 1,000 and 1,500.
West Africa’s Lake Chad region and Nigeria host estimated 6,000 to 7,000 IS jihadists while the Sahel contains around 2,500.
Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM rapidly expands in the Sahel, threatening regional regimes including Mali’s junta.
The Soufan Center warned of potential “domino effect” if Mali falls, potentially propelling jihadists throughout coastal west Africa.
Islamic State – West Africa Province remains highly active while Al-Shabaab dominates the Horn of Africa.
“Africa is now the epicentre of terrorism and directly threatens our interests,” said France’s foreign intelligence chief Nicolas Lerner.
Jihadists benefited from chaos following Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s fall last year.
“The freedom of movement of jihadists increased,” said the French security source about post-Assad Syria.
IS seized this opportunity though shows little indication of regaining former regional supremacy.
The IS Khorasan branch in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan represents “the most active franchise” according to researcher Alexandre Rodde.
The group killed dozens in 2024 attacks in Kerman, Iran and a Moscow concert hall.
“Its capacity to cause harm is considerably reduced,” noted the French security source about IS Khorasan.
“The Taliban are waging a fierce and effective war against them.” – AFP
