A new survey across nine EU countries reveals over half of citizens see a high risk of war with Russia, with stark differences in perception between eastern and western member states.
PARIS: A majority of citizens across nine European Union countries perceive a high risk of war breaking out between the bloc and Russia, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by Cluster 17 and published in the journal Le Grand Continent, found 51% of respondents believe there is a “high” or “very high” risk Russia could go to war with their country in the coming years.
The poll of 9,553 people was conducted in late November across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands.
Perceptions of the threat varied dramatically between nations.
In Poland, which borders Russia and Belarus, 77% of respondents considered the risk high or very high but this figure dropped to 54% in France and 51% in Germany.
Meanwhile, 65% of Italian respondents considered the risk low or nonexistent.
The findings come amid heightened rhetoric as France’s top general recently warned Russia was preparing for a new confrontation by 2030.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that if Europe wants war “we are ready right now”.
A large majority of 81% said there is little or no chance of a war with China in the coming years.
Respondents also expressed significant doubt over their own countries’ military capabilities against Moscow.
Around 69% said their nation would be “not at all” or “not likely” capable of defending itself against Russian aggression.
In France, the only nuclear-armed state in the survey, respondents were the least pessimistic as 44% believed their country is “quite” or “fairly” capable of self-defence.
At the other end of the spectrum were Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese, with 87%, 85% and 85% respectively believed their countries were incapable of defending themselves.
“Terrorism” remained the most immediate threat in European public opinion.
About 63% of respondents considered the risk of open war with “terrorist” groups to be “high” or “very high”.
