India surpasses Japan as the fourth-largest global economy, with a GDP of $4.18 trillion, and aims to overtake Germany within three years.
NEW DELHI: India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to a government review. Officials project the country will surpass Germany to claim third place within the next three years.
The government’s year-end economic briefing note valued India’s GDP at $4.18 trillion. It stated the nation is “poised to displace Germany” and reach a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030.
Official confirmation awaits final 2026 GDP data, with IMF projections aligning for India to cross Japan next year. The IMF forecasts India’s 2026 economy at $4.51 trillion versus Japan’s $4.46 trillion.
“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well-positioned to sustain this momentum,” the government note read. It attributed continued growth to “resilience amid persistent global trade uncertainties”.
This assessment comes despite economic challenges, including major US tariffs imposed over Russian oil purchases. India’s rupee also hit a record low against the dollar in early December.
Other measurements provide a more nuanced picture. India’s GDP per capita was $2,694 in 2024, according to World Bank figures.
This is 12 times smaller than Japan’s $32,487 and 20 times smaller than Germany’s $56,103. India became the world’s most populous nation in 2023.
More than a quarter of its 1.4 billion people are aged between 10 and 26. The government acknowledges the challenge of generating quality jobs for millions of young graduates.
“As one of the world’s youngest nations, India’s growth story is being shaped by its ability to generate quality employment,” the note added. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently enacted tax cuts and labour reforms.
India became the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2022, overtaking former colonial ruler Britain.
