BN faces different challenge in Negeri Sembilan despite Johor landslide
JOHOR BAHRU: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) sweeping victory in Johor has given the coalition renewed political momentum, but applying the same formula in Negeri Sembilan will require a different strategy as local dynamics, demographics and the enduring influence of Adat Perpatih shape its electoral landscape.
Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Professor Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said while the Johor result has strengthened BN’s position, Negeri Sembilan could not be treated as an extension of the southern state due to its unique political and cultural complexities.
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He said BN is yet to identify a clear “poster boy” to lead its campaign in the state.
He added that the coalition would need to present a convincing menteri besar candidate or leadership team while fielding local figures with strong community acceptance.
“For Pakatan Harapan (PH), the Johor result serves as a warning that national-level messaging alone is becoming less effective.
“PH needs to make the Negeri Sembilan election a referendum on the performance of the state government under Aminuddin Harun. Its administrative record, service delivery, Seremban-Nilai development and ability to address people’s concerns must take centre stage rather than national reform slogans.”
Awang Azman said the influence of Adat Perpatih, the role of the four Undang and the institution of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar would add another layer of complexity to the election.
“It may not directly determine voting choices but respect for traditional institutions and a candidate’s standing within the local community will greatly influence voter acceptance.”
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said BN has a strong political foundation in Negeri Sembilan where it holds 14 state seats, and cooperation with PAS could be among the options available to it.
Mazlan cautioned that BN’s challenge would be tougher than in Johor as PH, as the incumbent state government, has demonstrated administrative capability and good governance.
He said issues involving the monarchy and Adat Perpatih are likely to influence voter perceptions, particularly following recent developments involving the state’s traditional institutions.
“National issues will also influence politics in Negeri Sembilan as it borders the Klang Valley.”
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said BN’s Johor victory reflects voters’ preference for political stability and a single-party administration.
“I think that is the main reason behind BN’s landslide victory. And this is not only a Johor-specific phenomenon. I believe a similar trend could happen in Negeri Sembilan.”
Azmi said BN could potentially leverage the role of Umno Negeri Sembilan chief Datuk Jalaluddin Alias, who led 14 assemblymen in withdrawing support from Aminuddin, as a political advantage in the state.
He said Aminuddin could emerge as PH’s key figure, with the contest likely to centre on governance and issues involving the monarchy.
“The monarchy issue could become the main theme of the campaign in Negeri Sembilan, and I believe it was also a key reason behind the collapse of the state government.”
Ultimately, the analysts agreed that another major victory would strengthen BN’s position within the Unity government, allowing the coalition to seek greater influence ahead of the 16th General Election.
However, they cautioned that a state election victory would not automatically trigger an early general election, as its timing would also depend on developments in Sabah and Sarawak as well as the stability of the federal government.
