Johor result shows political pendulum swinging back to BN
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) two-thirds majority victory in Johor suggests the coalition has regained significant voter confidence, with the electorate rallying behind its state administration instead of splitting the so-called “liberal” vote, says political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri.
The International Islamic University Malaysia academic and ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow said the outcome indicated that higher voter turnout worked in BN’s favour, with many voters returning to the polls to ensure the coalition retained control of the state government.
READ MORE: BN retains mandate to govern Johor, winning 48 seats for two-thirds majority
“I wanted to say the ‘liberal’ vote was split but looking at the results, it doesn’t look that way. All these people going back to vote really wanted to defend BN as the state government,“ she told theSun.
Syaza said the result could signal a shift in voter sentiment following Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) tenure leading the federal government, suggesting that support which had previously moved away from BN may now be returning.
“This shows that the tide may have turned. Once people experienced PH in the federal government, the pendulum is swinging back to BN.”
She said BN had benefited politically from being part of the federal government without leading it, allowing public dissatisfaction with the administration to be directed mainly at PH and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
“BN has the advantage that even though it is in the federal government, the ‘failures’ have been attributed to PH and Anwar. So it becomes the strongest party by benefiting from being in power but not leading.”
Syaza said the result also highlighted the resilience of the BN brand in Johor, with voters appearing to differentiate between state and federal politics.
“In a way, it parallels Sabah, where voters separate local from federal issues.”
She said while the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections were unlikely to determine the future of the federal Unity government, the results could reshape political dynamics between PH, BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) ahead of the next general election.
Syaza stressed that the polls should not be viewed as a direct referendum on the Madani government, pointing out that the Unity government was formed as a post-election arrangement rather than a permanent political coalition.
“The Unity government is really a temporary post-election coalition. It was not meant to be a permanent coalition.”
However, she said PH’s performance would inevitably be tied to Anwar’s leadership as the coalition heads the federal government.
“A drop in support for PH in Johor and Negeri Sembilan would be seen as a drop in support for the Unity government.“
Syaza added that BN’s performance carried greater political significance because the coalition has consistently positioned itself as capable of governing independently.
“A strong showing by BN is also a rejection of the Unity government because BN’s rhetoric has been about going alone. Support for BN is support for BN to govern alone.”
She said a poor showing by PH would be politically damaging for Anwar but would not immediately destabilise the federal government, which still commands a comfortable majority in Parliament.
“If BN wins big, I’m sure BN would push for an early election and that could create instability.”
Despite the national attention surrounding the contests, Syaza believes voters were largely driven by state-level issues rather than federal politics.
She described the Johor election as a referendum on the administration of former menteri besar and Machap incumbent Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, while the Negeri Sembilan polls were expected to reflect voters’ assessment of caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun’s handling of the state’s recent royal succession issue.
Syaza also said the outcome could influence how PH and BN approach future political cooperation.
“The current political trajectory suggests PH and BN could eventually return to contesting against each other in the next general election instead of negotiating seat allocations as coalition partners.
“The issue is if BN wins big. Because now BN is the smaller partner, but if it can win big, they might challenge PH’s dominance.”
