Barisan Nasional confronts a high-stakes test in Kinabatangan and Lamag by-elections, with analysts warning against complacency in Sabah’s fluid political scene.
PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional (BN) faces a high-stakes test in today’s Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections, in which victories are widely expected but far from guaranteed.
Analysts caution that BN should not take victory for granted as Sabah’s fluid political environment could still present challenges.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said sentiments towards the late MP Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin could be a decisive factor but stressed that BN faces greater uncertainties compared with Warisan.
“Bung Moktar was widely popular in the constituency, and sympathy votes may help cushion any decline in turnout. While BN is an established party in the area and can count on its core supporters, it is also relying on support from Pakatan Harapan and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) voters, and that support is not guaranteed.”
He said the by-election is crucial for BN as a loss could signal that lessons from the previous state election have not been fully absorbed.
Azmi said Warisan appears better prepared, having learned from narrow defeats in the past.
“At present, the contest appears to favour Warisan, with the common view being that it is ‘Warisan’s race to lose’”.
A key narrative during the last state election was the “Sabah First” slogan.
Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the slogan continues to resonate.
However, he said BN still enjoys advantages, particularly due to reduced vote-splitting.
“With several major blocs not contesting, some voters may view the by-election as a referendum on continuity, potentially increasing BN’s majority, even as Warisan frames it as a referendum on local rights and interests.”
He said another advantage for BN is the emotional factor surrounding the late Bung Moktar.
“This by-election was triggered by his passing, shaping the race as a contest between continuity and new challenges rather than a typical multi-cornered contest. But sympathy does not automatically translate into votes. Voters may respect the late leader while making decisions based on current needs, candidate credibility and Sabah-centric aspirations.”
Awang Azman said the outcome would also depend on the final-phase campaigning by other contestants.
“BN must remain cautious, as there are signs of voter hesitation and a growing appeal of Sabah-centric narratives.
“If Warisan succeeds in mobilising these sentiments in critical areas, the gap can be narrowed.”
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said a BN victory remains highly likely as both Kinabatangan and Lamag are traditional strongholds.
Mazlan said the by-elections also test the cooperation between BN and GRS.
“If GRS truly supports BN, these results will demonstrate strong cooperation and goodwill among Sabah government components. The political landscape is also unlikely to shift drastically, given Bung Moktar’s enduring influence.”
