Analysts predict close contests in Kinabatangan and Lamag by-elections, with BN’s government networks facing Warisan’s local appeal
PETALING JAYA: The upcoming by-elections in Kinabatangan and Lamag are shaping up to be closely fought contests, with political analysts highlighting both the advantages of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) entrenched networks and Warisan’s strong local appeal.
According to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Novel Lyndon, BN’s strength in constituencies stems from its role in the federal and state governments, providing visibility, access to resources and institutional legitimacy.
“These factors reinforce local networks and voter perceptions of effectiveness, giving BN a structural advantage, particularly in rural and socially cohesive areas.
“Warisan draws support from younger and urban voters, using local issues and fresh narratives to mobilise swing voters, making it competitive despite BN’s advantages.”
Lyndon said both the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat and Lamag state seat have traditionally been held by Umno, placing the onus on the party to retain them.
He said Kinabatangan’s three-cornered contest creates a fragmented electoral landscape, with BN holding a historical advantage through strong grassroots networks, while Warisan works to consolidate support across a mixed ethnic and rural electorate.
“The presence of multiple candidates increases the risk of vote-splitting, potentially favouring the candidate with the strongest local ties.
“Nevertheless, Warisan could remain competitive if it successfully mobilises swing voters and engages youth constituencies.”
Lyndon emphasised that Lamag, by contrast, is a straight two-candidate race with little room for vote-splitting.
Here, success would depend on the cross-community appeal of candidates and alignment with local issues.
“Warisan could challenge BN if the latter’s support is concentrated but not broad, as swing voters could be decisive.”
He also said family-based political succession carries significant symbolic and relational capital, with Mohd Naim Kurniawan’s (son of the late Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin) candidacy reinforcing voter loyalty among constituents tied to his late father’s legacy.
“The passing of a long-serving representative often triggers emotional and social recalibration within the community.
“Voters may feel nostalgia or loyalty, increasing support for a successor perceived to continue the legacy, while social networks previously maintained by the deceased could temporarily destabilise, creating openings for rivals.
“In close-knit communities, this dynamic can strengthen cohesion but also create polarisation over party alignment or succession.”
Lyndon also said the independent candidate in Kinabatangan could influence the race by drawing votes away from one of the main parties, highlighting local grievances or forcing major candidates to adjust their strategies.
“If the independent has strong community legitimacy or family ties, the effect could be crucial in a close contest.
“While the main contest is between BN and Warisan, independent candidates in Sabah could still influence outcomes in unpredictable ways,” he said.
Echoing a similar view, Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the Kinabatangan and Lamag by-elections are expected to be closely contested, primarily between BN and Warisan.
He said neither Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) nor Pakatan Harapan fielded candidates, which reflects a functional working relationship among the parties.
“BN may hold an edge if supporters of GRS and Pakatan Harapan back its candidates.
“However, Warisan also has an advantage due to its strong performance in the previous state election and its position as a local party, compared with BN, which is often perceived in Sabah as a ‘Malaya-based’ party”, he added.
The upcoming Kinabatangan parliamentary by-election will feature a three-way contest between BN, Parti Warisan and an independent candidate.
BN’s Mohd Naim will take on Warisan’s Datuk Saddi Abdul Rahman, a former Sukau assemblyman, and independent Goldam Hamid.
Meanwhile, the Lamag state seat by-election will be a straight contest between BN’s Mohd Ismail Ayob and Warisan’s Mazliwati Abdul Malek.
The Kinabatangan parliamentary seat and Lamag state seat became vacant following Bung Moktar’s passing on Dec 5.
Bung Moktar had held Kinabatangan for six terms since 1999 and narrowly retained Lamag in the 17th Sabah State Election with a majority of 153.
The Election Commission has scheduled polling for both seats on Jan 24, with early voting set for Jan 20.
