‘Drop reflects sharp erosion of party’s traditional base, driven largely by protest voting and fragmentation among voters’
KUALA LUMPUR: Support for Umno among Malay voters has fallen to just 24%, according to Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abdul Muis.
Speaking at the Umno Youth Special Convention at the World Trade Centre Kuala Lumpur yesterday, Mujibu said the figure reflects a sharp erosion of Umno’s traditional base, driven largely by protest voting and fragmentation of Malay voters.
He said Malaysia’s post-GE15 political landscape marked an unprecedented turning point, with no single coalition able to command a parliamentary majority, forcing the formation of a unity government.
“Coalition or unity governments are common in Western democracies but this is still relatively new for Malaysia. After GE15, political parties, including Umno, found themselves at a crossroads where narrative-building has become as important as organisational strength.”
According to Ilham Centre’s sentiment analyses conducted between 2022 and 2025, Umno and Barisan Nasional are facing mounting difficulties in winning over Malay voters amid growing political polarisation.
Mujibu said Malay voters are now broadly divided into three categories – hardcore supporters who see Umno as a pillar of stability, former supporters who have shifted their allegiance to Perikatan Nasional largely as a form of political protest, and fence-sitters who now form the largest bloc, particularly following the implementation of Undi18.
“These fence-sitters are highly critical voters. They assess the political situation, the economy and leadership performance before deciding. The ‘wait-and-see’ attitude has become Umno’s biggest challenge.”
Ilham Centre’s third-quarter 2025 data showed overall support for Umno-BN at around 28%, with 45% opposed and 27% undecided.
However, the picture is more troubling among Malay voters as their support for Umno has slipped below 25% compared with a relatively stable non-Malay base.
In contrast, non-Malay voters continue to show strong backing for the Unity government, with around 70% expressing support compared with just 12% among Malays.
Mujibu said Malay support for Umno has been in steady decline since GE14 in 2018, particularly among younger voters, with backing falling from 48% to 24% following recent state elections.
“If the current trend continues, Umno risks losing even more Malay support, possibly dropping below 20%. At present, Umno’s solid grassroots base stands at around 30%. If that erodes, voter migration away from the party could reach as high as 55%.”
He stressed that Umno must move beyond its existing framework and recalibrate its narrative to address voter concerns, especially among young Malays and fence-sitters.
“The party’s strength will ultimately be tested by its ability to redefine itself in a fragmented and highly competitive political environment.”
The Umno Youth special convention, organised under the leadership of its chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Salleh, was held yesterday to deliberate whether the party should continue its role within the Madani unity government.
The convention drew more than 1,000 participants, reflecting strong grassroots interest in the party’s future direction amid an increasingly complex political landscape.
