The US government shutdown causes a second delay in the employment report, with October’s data potentially unrecoverable due to missed collection.
WASHINGTON: The US Labor Department will not publish its crucial employment report on Friday for an unprecedented second consecutive month due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Fears are mounting that October’s employment report might never be released even after full government operations resume.
The record-long shutdown has created a complete government data blackout, leaving policymakers, investors, and economists without a clear economic picture.
Private institutions have provided alternative data, but economists caution these are limited in scope and cannot replace official government statistics.
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September’s employment report, originally due October 3, will likely be published shortly after the government reopens.
Economists doubt the Labor Department can produce a full October report since no data was collected during the shutdown month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically surveys businesses and households for the employment report during the week containing the 12th day of each month.
The report combines two surveys: an establishment survey calculating nonfarm payrolls and a household survey determining the unemployment rate.
Businesses complete forms for the establishment survey, while Census Bureau field workers collect household survey data from random samples.
Senior labor economist Ron Hetrick stated, “I don’t think the household survey data will be published.”
He explained that field workers would struggle to gather accurate October employment status information from households after such a long delay.
“The payroll data is actually a little different,” Hetrick noted. “Companies are probably still tracking their payrolls … they could potentially produce the payroll survey side of this, but I don’t think the household survey is possible to do.”
Similar concerns apply to inflation reports requiring physical data collection, with the White House already warning October’s consumer price report might not be published.
Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen said, “Anything that’s monthly, with a household survey, there’s likely to be a hole. The unemployment rate that comes out of the Current Population Survey, there’s a good chance that might not be available either.”
Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker outlined three potential BLS approaches for handling the missed October data collection.
Following previous shutdowns, the BLS chose to conduct interviews about the original reference week despite potential recall bias.
Walker noted, “However, the longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the risk that the BLS forgoes collecting October data.” – Reuters
