Political analysts say PAS has lost bargaining power with Umno after PN’s crushing Johor election defeat, strengthening BN’s position in future talks.
PETALING JAYA: Perikatan Nasional’s crushing defeat in the Johor state election has severely weakened PAS’s bargaining power with Umno, leaving any prospect of reviving Muafakat Nasional increasingly likely to be dictated on Barisan Nasional’s terms, political analysts said.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said PAS’s push to revive Muafakat Nasional 2.0 before the Johor election had become considerably more difficult following BN’s commanding 48-seat victory.
“Umno has less electoral need to enter an equal partnership with PAS now. Any revival of Muafakat Nasional is therefore likely to occur on Umno’s terms.”
He added that the result also strengthened Umno’s push for its Rumah Bangsa initiative, which seeks to reunite former, suspended and estranged Umno members while drawing other Malay political figures into an Umno-led platform.
“The Johor victory allows Umno to argue that Malay political consolidation should take place under its leadership rather than through PAS or PN.”
Tawfik said PN failed to project itself as a cohesive and credible alternative to BN, despite PAS and Bersatu contesting under the same banner.
Rather than mounting a coordinated campaign, the two parties largely operated independently, with PAS openly declaring that its election machinery would not assist Bersatu candidates.
He added that although BN entered the election as the clear favourite, PN’s complete wipeout was more severe than many had anticipated.
Tawfik also said PN secured only 5.4% of the statewide vote, demonstrating that the momentum it enjoyed in several northern and east coast states could not simply be replicated in Johor.
In early July, PAS instructed its members and supporters to back BN candidates in the 23 constituencies where PN was not contesting, in a bid to prevent Pakatan Harapan from forming the state government.
On July 9, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang said the party was prepared to support BN in forming the Johor government if the coalition fell short of a simple majority.
He said any cooperation should be based on mutual trust rather than formal agreements, adding that BN would have the right to appoint the menteri besar and state executive councillors, while PAS could provide support if required.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said initiatives such as Muafakat Nasional and Rumah Bangsa might appear politically attractive, but leadership remained the biggest obstacle.
“The key question remains which party is set to lead such a coalition, and the fight for that helm typically will tear the particular initiative apart,” he said, adding that PN was already grappling with internal power struggles.
