Johor result raises questions over PN’s ‘Green Wave’ as Negeri Sembilan looms
PETALING JAYA: After failing to gain traction in Johor, Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) “Green Wave” will face its next electoral test in the Negeri Sembilan state election, as political analysts view it as a measure of the coalition’s ability to expand beyond its traditional strongholds.
Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principle adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun said Johor had shown that the Green Wave did not materialise as some had anticipated.
READ MORE: Johor landslide weakens PAS, analysts say Muafakat Nasional revival now on Umno’s terms
“It would have been a worrying resurgence of the Green Wave if, for example, PAS had won more seats than before, but that ultimately did not materialise.”
However, he cautioned against reading PAS’s poor Johor showing as a sign of national decline, adding that the party retained considerable strength in its traditional heartland states as well as in more urbanised states.
He added that while state elections inevitably had some bearing on one another, each contest was shaped primarily by state issues.
“State elections typically concern more state than national issues, and each state has its peculiar political configuration.”
Oh said Negeri Sembilan presented a different political landscape from Johor, where PAS was still seeking to expand its support.
“Negeri Sembilan is one state where PAS is trying to make inroads and where the economy is not performing as spectacularly as Johor, on top of the seemingly incessant power struggles among various levels of elite.
“It would be interesting to observe how much further PAS could penetrate.”
PN currently holds five of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly.
PAS holds Serting, Paroi and Bagan Pinang, while Bersatu represents Labu and Gemas.
Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub described Johor’s outcome as a warning for PN but emphasised that Negeri Sembilan would not necessarily produce the same result.
He added that while PAS failed to win any of the 11 seats it contested in Johor, its 2,143-vote defeat in Maharani indicated the party still possessed a meaningful local base in selected areas.
“These seats provide PN with a more established base than it possessed in many Johor constituencies, but they cannot be considered automatically safe.”
Mohammad Tawfik said the Johor result also pointed to a limitation in the PAS campaign approach.
“It shows that PAS cannot depend solely on religious and Malay unity narratives in a state where voters also prioritise administrative performance, local leadership and economic delivery.”
He added that the coalition’s greatest challenge was continued uncertainty over the relationship between PAS, Bersatu and Umno.
“Voters may hesitate to support candidates who contest under one coalition but appear prepared to cooperate with another after the election.”
He said the Johor outcome suggested that when PAS supporters were offered a credible Umno candidate, some could return directly to Barisan Nasional rather than continue supporting PN.
“Negeri Sembilan will not necessarily reproduce Johor’s result.
Candidate quality, incumbency, seat negotiations and local Malay voting patterns will be decisive.”
He also said PAS and Umno were already in discussions, with PAS accepting that Umno would remain the dominant force and indicating it would not demand the menteri besar position.
