NEW YORK: Global coffee demand is projected to fall 0.5% in 2025 due mostly to higher prices as coffee companies continue to pass on to consumers their higher costs to replenish stocks, said Dutch bank Rabobank in a quarterly report on Tuesday.
“Pent-up retail price increases continue to take place despite the recent drop in green coffee prices off historical peaks,“ said the report by the bank’s Agri Commodity Markets Research.
“Demand has clearly been weakening in large markets like Brazil and Germany,“ it said, adding that global coffee net imports came down in the first quarter by 7% when compared to the fourth quarter of last year. In an annual comparison, imports fell 1.9% in the first quarter, Rabobank said.
Global coffee production was projected to increase to 171.1 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 season that starts in October versus 169.7 million bags in the previous season.
With better production and slower demand, Rabobank expects the global coffee supply balance to shift from a small deficit of 900,000 bags in 2024/25 to a surplus of 1.4 million bags in 2025/26.
The supply side could improve further in the 2026/27 season as tree development in top grower Brazil looks positive, the bank said.
