PETALING JAYA: Even before the first vote has been cast in the Sabah election slated for Sept 26, political pundits are already hard at work.
The campaign will be closely watched, and the outcome will be analysed over and over again.
The interest is more than superficial. Many are convinced that the outcome in Sabah will serve as a bellwether for a bigger battle to come – the 15th general election.
The belief is that the side that triumphs in Sabah will likely have the upper hand when the country goes to the polls again.
Some have gone as far as to say whether Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin calls for snap election will dependent on how well Perikatan Nasional (PN) and its allies do in the Sabah polls.
But for some analysts who have been keeping their finger on the country’s political pulse, this is mere conjecture.
They point out that the situation in Sabah and the issues at hand are quite different from those in the rest of the country.
A total of 447 candidates belonging to a wide array of parties are contesting for the 73 seats up for grabs.
Despite the seemingly mixed bag of hopefuls, the battle is largely between just two sides.
The first is the incumbent coalition led by Parti Warisan Sabah, collectively known as Warisan Plus. On its side are parties such as the DAP and PKR, apart from several Sabah-based groups.
Hoping to dislodged them is Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, a loose alliance comprising PN, Barisan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah.
In the eyes of independent political analyst Prof Dr Jeniri Amir, it does not matter which side takes the prize.
“It will not determine the outcome of the next general election,” he told theSun yesterday.
“The complexity of so many candidates and parties already sets Sabah apart from the rest of the country.”
“Sabah also faces different issues compared with the peninsula. We cannot have a blanket generalisation,” Jeniri added.
He noted that for Sabahans, stability and development are important issues.
Illegal migrants, a sliding economy, mega projects such as the multi-billion ringgit Tanjung Aru eco-development, comfortable housing and clean water loom large for Sabahans.
However, he was quick to add that under current circumstances, the alliance led by PN has an advantage.
“Warisan has had a lacklustre 26 months in power. It failed to provide job opportunities. The general sentiment is to seek new leaders.”
Jeniri also does not believe that Muhyiddin will call for snap election anytime soon, even if PN wins in Sabah.
“I believe he has already set his mind on when to call for elections. His ratings have improved based on his handling of the Covid pandemic,” he said.
Sharing the same view is analyst Jamari Mohtar, a director of media and communications at independent think-tank Emir Research.
He said Sabah is different from many states in the peninsula and whatever happens in Sabah cannot be easily replicated elsewhere.
On the other hand, he believes that with the substantial number of seats they command at the federal level, Sabahans may yet be the kingmaker in Putrajaya if there is a narrow margin between the contesting sides in the 15th general election.
Jamari also dismissed the notion that Muhyiddin would call snap a election if Warisan Plus loses.
“He’s more concerned about how best to manage the Covid issue and the economy now.”
“A snap election at this time is a waste of money and a risk to public health,” he added.
Read this story on our iPaper: Different ball game
