China supports Myanmar’s controversial elections, securing rebel truces that strengthen the junta’s position ahead of the vote, analysts say.
LASHIO: China has emerged as a key supporter of Myanmar’s military-run elections, despite widespread international condemnation and domestic boycotts.
The vote starting Sunday has been dismissed by international monitors as a charade to rebrand military rule following the 2021 coup.
Beijing’s diplomatic brokerage has secured significant truces and rebel retreats, strengthening the junta’s position ahead of the weeks-long poll.
Analysts say China now backs the military and its elections to pursue its own strategic interests in Myanmar.
“It’s as if an outsider were involved in our family issues,” a 30-year-old Lashio resident told AFP, requesting anonymity for security.
Myanmar’s military cancelled democracy nearly five years ago, detaining civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and alleging massive voter fraud.
The country plunged into civil war as pro-democracy activists and ethnic minority armies took up arms against central rule.
China’s reaction to the military takeover was initially muted, but the explosion of border-based internet scam centres targeting Chinese citizens changed its stance.
Beijing abandoned its agnosticism after the junta failed to crack down on the scam operations, analysts say.
It gave at least tacit backing to a combined rebel offensive by the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” of ethnic minority armies.
The alliance won stunning advances in 2024, including capturing Lashio and a regional military command.
“What I’ve seen is that China can control outside organisations,” another anonymous Lashio resident said.
The rebels marched towards Myanmar’s second city, Mandalay, before Beijing intervened to prevent a total military collapse.
“Beijing’s policy is no state collapse,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
China may back the military but has terminal doubts about military chief Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership, Michaels added.
Many monitors, including a United Nations expert, have described the election as a “sham”.
Rebels have pledged to block the vote from their territory, deriding it as choreography to prolong Min Aung Hlaing’s rule.
The nominal return to civilian rule will force Min Aung Hlaing to choose between the presidency or armed forces chief role, diluting his power.
After the junta laid out an election timetable, Min Aung Hlaing met Chinese President Xi Jinping in May.
China subsequently defused the rebel alliance by peeling away two of its border-based factions with truces.
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army agreed to an armistice in October.
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army handed back the bitterly contested city of Lashio in April.
“I feel lost as a citizen,” the anonymous Lashio woman said, mourning friends who had died or could not return.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said China supports Myanmar in uniting political forces and restoring stability.
Junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun said the election is not being held for the international community.
He said “partner countries” are assisting the election out of a desire for Myanmar’s betterment.
