Finding the aircraft wreckage remains oneof aviation’s hardest challenges, as vast oceans, missing crash coordinates and imperfect data limit even the most advanced technology: Expert
PETALING JAYA: Nearly 12 years after Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 vanished, renewed searches in the southern Indian Ocean highlight just how complex locating the aircraft remains, even with major advances in technology.
Universiti Kuala Lumpur Business School aviation expert Assoc Prof Major Dr Mohd Harridon Mohamed Suffian said the biggest obstacle has always been the lack of a confirmed crash site.
“The primary predicament is identifying the exact location of the wreckage,” he said, adding that investigators can only estimate possible locations rather than pinpoint a single site. Those estimated areas stretch across vast sections of the southern Indian Ocean, making any search operation inherently arduous, time-consuming and costly.”
While new underwater robots and autonomous vehicles have enhanced deep-sea search capabilities, Mohd Harridon said technology alone cannot guarantee success.
“The data collected must be interpreted to provide a meaningful representation of the ocean floor.
“The interpretation must be astute and holistic to avoid mistaking natural seabed features for man-made objects,” he said, stressing that both sensor quality and analytical models must continue to improve to create an accurate picture of the underwater environment.
“With no confirmed crash coordinates, search teams rely heavily on mathematical modelling to focus their efforts.”
Mohd Harridon said various models can be used depending on the type and quality of available data, including optimisation approaches such as genetic algorithms.
However, he cautioned that modelling results remain approximations.
“The integration of mathematical models is not an absolute solution – the results are still estimates of the situation.”
The most credible search strategies, he added, combine multiple sources, including satellite data, drift analysis, wind patterns, engineering calculations and qualitative human information.
“All data from diverse sources should be combined to form a panoramic outlook of the tragedy.”
Satellite data and drift models have been pivotal in narrowing search zones, he said.
“Investigators must continually eliminate implausible search areas to avoid wasting time and resources.
“Structured evaluation tools such as the Pugh Matrix which compares multiple options against set criteria, could help prioritise zones with the highest probability of success.”
Mohd Harridon said even fragments of the aircraft could provide critical insights.
“Components and physical parts could relay valuable narratives of the mysterious incident.
“Deformation patterns on parts such as wings or the radome (radar dome) could reveal the impact angle, speed, force of impact and whether the descent was controlled or uncontrolled.
“The distribution and scatter radius of debris on the ocean floor could also offer clues about the nature of the crash.”
He stressed that discovering multiple interconnected components allows investigators to verify findings across different pieces of evidence. For the victims’ families, renewed searches inevitably rekindle hope.
However, he warned that extreme ocean depths, harsh conditions and the physical strain on autonomous vehicles impose limits on what any search can achieve.
“Each renewed attempt represents another step towards answers in one of aviation’s most enduring mysteries.”
On Dec 30 last year, Texas-based Ocean Infinity resumed seabed searches for 55 days, targeting areas deemed most likely to yield the aircraft. The operation, under a service agreement with the Malaysian government, is on a “no find, no fee” basis, meaning Malaysia bears no cost if no wreckage is found. If debris is recovered, the company would receive US$70 million (RM283.7 million), the same terms proposed in 2018 when Ocean Infinity first conducted the search.
