The shifting balance of power within PN could have significant electoral implications, including a possible expansion of PAS’s contesting ground if it distances itself from Bersatu.
PETALING JAYA: A widening rift between PAS and Bersatu is pointing towards a potential realignment within Perikatan Nasional (PN) ahead of the next general election, with analysts saying the coalition could gradually evolve into a PAS-dominated vehicle as internal tensions reshape its structure.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Iseas–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said PAS appears to be recalibrating its position within PN as its influence strengthens, suggesting that the Islamist party no longer sees Bersatu as central to its electoral strategy.
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“I think PAS is re-strategising as it has gained more confidence, especially now that PN is led by PAS. It does not look like Bersatu is as needed as before,” she told theSun.
She said the shifting balance of power within PN could have significant electoral implications, including a possible expansion of PAS’s contesting ground if it distances itself from Bersatu.
“The implication is that PN will be a PAS-led vehicle and attract voters who support the Islamist party. If they cut relations with Bersatu, PAS could contest seats held by Bersatu and increase their own seats,” she said.
Looking ahead to the next general election, she explained that political fragmentation is likely to intensify across the divide, affecting opposition and government coalitions.
“Ahead of the 16th general election, I think we will see fragmentation on both sides. PH and BN will contest separately and PAS and Bersatu will most likely do the same.
“Maybe PAS will work with Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin and others, but the point is it will really be a free-for-all on the opposition and government sides,” she said.
Syaza added that Bersatu’s relevance to PAS may already be diminishing in key strongholds.
“I think Bersatu’s presence and value to PAS is marginal in the northern states, such as Kedah, Perlis and Penang. In states such as Malacca, I think Bersatu has more influence,” she said.
However, she said Bersatu faces structural challenges in expanding its appeal nationally, particularly amid competition from Umno.
“Bersatu is competing with Umno, so I think Bersatu’s ability to broaden PN’s support is limited by the growing strength and confidence of Umno as well.
“PN might lose the ‘moderate’ Malay votes but I am not sure how loyal these voters are to Bersatu,” she said.
She downplayed the likelihood of voter confusion if a split materialises, saying that PN’s core support base remains relatively stable.
“I do not think there will be confusion because PN voters were mostly PAS supporters and those disappointed with Umno.
“So, PAS voters will continue to vote PN/PAS while those previously disappointed with Umno are slowly going back to Umno,” she added.
Separately, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the tensions between PAS and Bersatu reflect a deeper strategic contest over PN’s future composition rather than a temporary disagreement.
He said PAS appears intent on maintaining its position within PN while pushing Bersatu out of the coalition.
“But it is going to be difficult for Bersatu to be kicked out unless Bersatu voluntarily moves out from PN.
“To kick out a member, you need agreement from all the members, in this case Gerakan and the Malaysian Indian People’s Party.”
He added that PAS’s longer-term strategy may involve reshaping PN’s membership by bringing in smaller parties and potentially new entrants aligned with Hamzah’s faction or other emerging political vehicles.
“But what is clear is that PAS adamantly wants Bersatu out while remaining within PN.
“I think that is the strategy unfolding now and it is not a temporary dispute between the two parties,” she said.
