NAIROBI: The factory may be in East Africa, but the Wrangler and Levi's jeans rolling off the production line are pure Americana, destined for US stores like Walmart and JCPenney.
The United Aryan factory, on the outskirts of Kenya's capital Nairobi, exists for one reason: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a 25-year-old US law that gives duty-free access to thousands of goods made on the continent, particularly clothes.
But AGOA will expire in September unless President Donald Trump agrees to extend it -- a decision putting hundreds of thousands of African livelihoods on a knife-edge.
Though the programme has bipartisan support, it's going up against a president known for his free-trade scepticism. Adding to the pressure is a time crunch: to prepare for the year ahead, the United Aryan factory's clients need to know by next month if AGOA will survive.
United Aryan ships up to eight million pairs of jeans to the United States each year, and millions more shirts and other items.
It has also transformed a once dangerous area of the city, said CEO Pankaj Bedi, who said local gangs would often “steal everything down to the copper cable” when they first set up in 2002.
“Today, you can see, it’s a well-developed community,“ he told AFP. “We have 150,000 people who directly or indirectly depend on us. It has stabilised the whole socio-economics of the area.”
Each day, thousands gather outside the gates, hoping to fill in for absences among the 10,000 staff. An average assembly line worker earns around $200 a month, a decent wage in Kenya.
“Our families are happy, our children go to school, crime has gone down,“ said Norah Nasimiyu, 48, a worker representative on the shop floor, surrounded by colleagues stitching pockets and slicing huge piles of denim.
The factory has faced major ups and downs, however.
New global trade rules in 2005 swamped markets with Asian clothing. The 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 pandemic almost flatlined the business.
“There were many times when we thought we should give up,“ said Bedi.
“But when you have 150,000 people dependent on what you do, you have a responsibility. Shutting down a business is a five-minute job, but to establish and create this kind of platform is not easy.”
- Time running out -
Now comes the biggest threat of all: will Washington renew AGOA?
Without its duty-free benefits, US buyers will likely turn to cheaper factories in Asia.
Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress support an extension for at least 12 years, giving companies the long-term security to thrive.
But all bets are off with Trump, given his scepticism to free trade.
The United States benefits from Africa's cheaper labour, especially in the cost-sensitive clothing sector, said Bedassa Tadesse, an economics professor at University of Minnesota Duluth who has studied AGOA.
“But we have come to this stage where trade policy decisions are no longer just based on cost-benefit analysis,“ Tadesse said.
One hope, he added, is that Trump will see AGOA as a way of countering Chinese influence in Africa, especially after he axed billions in humanitarian aid.
Witney Schneidman, an AGOA expert with the Brookings Institution think tank, said there was “zero chance” the issue was currently on Trump’s radar.
“It’s small change in Trump’s worldview, but it’s very important as an instrument in US-African relations, especially when we just lost virtually all our soft power by dismantling USAID,“ Schneidman said.
Bedi, who has been involved in the talks as part of the Kenyan Association of Manufacturers, remains confident.
“I think Trump will be favourable. America cannot produce what we are producing, so he has to find an alternative. Where better than Africa?” he said.
Time is running out, though.
The factory and its clients need to know AGOA's future by the end of March to plan for the coming season, or production lines will grind to a halt.
“Buyers have started to panic. We’ve been assuring them that it will be okay,“ said Bedi.
“Fingers crossed.”
