KUALA LUMPUR: Gross exports are anticipated to grow by 5.1 per cent across all sectors in 2024, supported by better performance in global trade and improved prospects in the commodity sector.
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) in its Economic Outlook 2024 report released today said the growth is partly attributed to the ratification of trade agreements, namely the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) that will enable Malaysian products to further penetrate into wider markets.
Exports of manufactured goods are projected to rebound by 5.5 per cent resulting from rising demand for both electrical and electronics (E&E) and non-E&E products, constituting 48.1 per cent and 51.9 per cent, respectively.
The E&E products are forecast to grow by 4.9 per cent, bolstered by the steady demand for semiconductor, following the upcycle trend in E&E.
“The projected growth is also in tandem with the implementation of the New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030) that will propel high-impact sectors such as E&E and aerospace,” the ministry said.
Similarly, exports of non-E&E are estimated to expand by 6.1 per cent following increasing demand, particularly for petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products as well as manufactures of metal.
Exports of agriculture goods are forecast to expand by 1.7 per cent, supported by a higher demand for palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products amid anticipated minimal impact from the El Niño phenomenon.
Furthermore, export earnings from mining goods are estimated to increase by 2.9 per cent, contributed by stronger demand from major markets, particularly for liquefied natural gas (3.2 per cent) and crude petroleum (2.8 per cent), as well as favourable global energy prices.
Meanwhile, gross imports are expected to increase by 4.9 per cent in 2024 buoyed by higher demand for intermediate, capital and consumption goods.
Imports of intermediate goods are anticipated to grow by 5.2 per cent, mainly attributed to the expansion in construction sector, fuelled by strategic infrastructure and utilities projects as well as acceleration in the implementation of projects under the Twelfth Malaysia Plan (12MP).
Furthermore, imports of capital goods are projected to expand by 5.1 per cent in tandem with favourable investment activities, while imports of consumption goods are anticipated to rise by 4.1 per cent, driven by food and beverages.
The MoF said the current account balance is expected to register a surplus of RM62.2 billion or 3.2 per cent of gross national income (GNI) in 2024, on the back of continuous improvement in economic activities.
“The goods account is projected to record a surplus of RM174.9 billion following better growth prospect in major trading partners.”
Higher earnings in the transport, travel and other services accounts are anticipated to narrow the deficit in services account to RM35.9 billion.
Receipts from transport account are projected to rise to RM34.2 billion, bolstered by higher earnings from air travel and cargo handling services provided by domestic companies.
However, the continued reliance on foreign transport services is anticipated to result in an increase in payments for transport account, reaching RM62.1 billion, amid robust trade activities.
Earnings in the travel account is expected to improve to RM76.6 billion attributed to thriving tourism activities in 2024 following higher tourist arrivals and per capita spending.
Similarly, it said payments in travel account are anticipated to increase to RM53.8 billion due to residents’ spending abroad for business, education and pilgrimage travelling activities.
Meanwhile, the ministry said, with the ongoing implementation of strategic projects and stronger economic activities following the expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, the other services account is expected to register a wider deficit of RM30.7 billion due to higher payments.
The primary income account is projected to record a wider deficit of RM58.5 billion owing to higher payments by foreign investors in tandem with the ongoing investment activities.
Similarly, the secondary income account is anticipated to register net outflows of RM18.3 billion mainly due to higher remittances by foreign workers. –Bernama
