KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.0 per cent at its meeting today.
The central bank said the global economy this year is anticipated to be sustained by positive labour market conditions, moderating inflation and less restrictive monetary policy.
“Disinflation in most advanced economies is expected to continue, facilitated by moderating commodity prices and dissipating effects of past monetary policy tightening.
“Global trade is expected to remain supported by the continued tech upcycle,” BNM said in a statement.
However, it emphasised that the outlook for global growth, inflation and trade is subject to considerable uncertainties surrounding tariff and other policies from major economies and geopolitical developments.
“Such uncertainties could also lead to greater volatility in the global financial markets,” it said.
On the outlook for Malaysia, BNM noted that the economy recorded a higher growth of 5.1 per cent in 2024, driven by stronger domestic demand and a rebound in exports.
“Moving forward, despite external uncertainties, the strength in economic activity is expected to be sustained in 2025, anchored by domestic demand.
“Employment and wage growth, as well as policy measures, including the upward revision of the minimum wage and civil servant salaries, will support household spending,” it said.
BNM also said that the robust expansion in investment activity will be sustained by the progress of multi-year projects in both the private and public sectors, the continued high realisation of approved investments, as well as the ongoing implementation of catalytic initiatives under the national master plans.
It said exports are expected to expand at a more moderate pace amid global policy uncertainties.
“Nevertheless, exports will remain supported by the global tech upcycle, continued growth in non-electrical and electronics, as well as higher tourist spending,” it said.
BNM cautioned that the growth outlook is subject to downside risks from an economic slowdown in major trading partners following significant uncertainties surrounding trade policies and lower-than-expected commodity production.
On the other hand, it said, growth could be lifted by greater spillovers from the global tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity, and faster implementation of investment projects.
BNM said overall, inflation is expected to remain manageable in 2025 amid the easing global cost conditions and the absence of excessive domestic demand pressures.
Headline and core inflation stood at 1.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, in January.
“Global commodity prices are expected to continue to trend lower, contributing to moderate cost conditions.
“The recently introduced wage-related policies would provide additional support to demand, although the impact on inflation is expected to be limited,” it said.
In this environment, the overall impact of the announced domestic policy reforms on inflation is expected to be contained, said BNM.
“Upside risk to inflation would be dependent on the extent of spillover effects of domestic policy measures, as well as external developments surrounding global commodity prices, financial markets and trade policies,” it added.
On the local currency, BNM said the ringgit’s performance continues to be primarily driven by external developments, with the narrowing interest rate differentials between Malaysia and the advanced economies being positive for the ringgit.
“Financial markets could experience heightened bouts of volatility due to global policy uncertainties. Nevertheless, Malaysia’s favourable economic prospects and domestic structural reforms, complemented by ongoing initiatives to encourage flows, will continue to provide enduring support to the ringgit,” it said.
BNM is of the view that at the current OPR level, the monetary policy stance remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of inflation and growth prospects.
“The MPC remains vigilant to ongoing developments to inform the assessment on the domestic inflation and growth outlook. The committee will ensure that the monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable economic growth amid price stability,” it added.
