KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to gradually appreciate against the US dollar towards end of the year and strengthen below the RM4 level by early 2019, according to Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd’s head of research Kenny Yee.
The local unit weakened 0.1% to 4.1865 against the greenback as at 5pm yesterday. Year-to-date, it has depreciated 3.4%.
“By end of this year, I expect it to improve to the RM4.05-RM4.10 level and should dip below RM4 early next year. Hopefully the foreign funds have started to flow back into Malaysia by that time,” Yee told the media during the fully online broker’s market outlook briefing here today.
“Initially, early this year we expect the ringgit to hover around RM3.80-RM3.90 level, but looking at what had happened in the US (rate hikes) and the recent (weakening of) Chinese renminbi, I think the ringgit has performed worse than expected,” he added.
Hence, Yee said the foreign funds are likely to return in the near term to take advantage of the lower ringgit.
Year-to-date, he said the foreign net selling stood at almost RM11 billion.
Moreover, Yee said Malaysia, which has a lower average market volatility compared with Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, is known as the region’s safe haven for foreign funds and is likely to attract foreign investors’ interest.
“Malaysia is usually known as the region’s more defensive market, and it is a preferred destination for foreign funds,” he added.
The firm however substantially reduced its corporate earnings growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 4.1% and 4.2% respectively, from 6.8% and 8.3% previously on the back of the sharp earnings downgrade in the gaming, telecommuni-cation and plantation sectors.
“Going forward, we expect banking sector will continue to be the main catalysts for earnings growth,” he said.
However, for 2020, the firm expects a better performance for Malaysian com-panies with an estimated 7.6% growth.
Rakuten Trade’s top picks among the FBM KLCI component stocks are Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), Genting Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Axiata Group Bhd and Gamuda Bhd.
Yee noted that the index-linked blue chips are ripe for the picking following some of the heaviest sell-off seen in May and June.
In the small and mid cap space, Rakuten Trade favours Kelington Group Bhd, HSS Engineers Bhd, Malaysia Building Society Bhd, Perak Transit Bhd and Vizione Hold-ings Bhd.
According to Yee, the FBM KLCI is anticipated to grow over 7% or 100 points from the current 1,660 points to touch 1,780 points by year-end and reach 1,840 points in 2019 based on 16 times the market’s forecast earnings.
