NIBONG TEBAL: At precisely 11:59 tonight, the 14-day campaigning period for the Sungai Bakap state by-election will end, and all eyes will be on the 39,279 voters who will determine whether the constituency maintains its opposition voice or aligns with the Unity Government for the sake of more inclusive development.
Tomorrow’s polling will witness a straight fight between Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin, representing the Unity Government, and Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate Abidin Ismail, both Sungai Bakap natives.
Both candidates demonstrated similar approaches in their campaigning by going to the ground as often as possible to reach out to voters to introduce their manifestoes.
Joohari was the first to launch his manifesto containing his commitment to the Sungai Bakap constituents, outlining four main thrusts derived from the acronym per-P.A.D.U-an, which stands for P - Prasarana (Infrastructure) and Progresif (Progress); A - Akhlak, Akademik Anak Muda (Morals, Youth Academics); D - Damai (Peace); and U - Untuk Semua (For All).
Meanwhile, Abidin launched his four days before the end of the campaign period, presenting 15 offers based on the acronym ‘KERJA’: K stands for service to the community, E - economy and job opportunities, R - infrastructural network, J - assurance of putting the people first and A - trust and integrity.
The by-election campaign trail highlights a mature political narrative, where contesting parties could play against each other in a friendly football match. The candidates were also seen striving to conduct healthy and ethical campaign activities, refusing to engage in provocation or personal attacks.
On the chances of the two candidates, political analyst Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul said the candidates are ‘equally capable’. However, he said on paper that the PH candidate’s chances of winning are higher due to his extensive experience in education and his vision and mission, which resonate with the aspirations of the Penang state government.
Joohari is a former teacher appointed as the director for the northern branch of Institut Aminuddin Baki on April 4, 2018, before retiring from civil service on September 1 last year. Meanwhile, Abidin has a background in logistics and served as an assistant to the late Sungai Bakap assemblyman, Nor Zamri Latiff.
“Joohari may be outstanding in the field of education compared to his opponent, but politically, he is relatively new. In contrast, residents have known Abidin during his time as the assistant to the late assemblyman. This factor should be considered as it can influence voter sentiment.”
“Nevertheless, Joohari has an advantage because federal ministers have also been actively campaigning alongside him, so the federal government provides synergy or strength to wrestle the seat from the opposition,“ said Ainul Adzellie when Bernama contacted him.
He said breaking the status quo for the Sungai Bakap seat signals more robust support for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his leadership, especially as they move towards the 16th General Election (GE16).
Meanwhile, according to the political analyst from Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Mujibu Abd Muis, both candidates have a fair chance of winning, but based on the current narrative that focuses on the people’s financial issues, the advantage may lean towards PN.
However, PH could still catch up, especially when the Malay-Islamic narrative brought by their opponent is no longer at its peak as it was during the state election in August last year, he said.
Considering this is the third election for the residents of Sungai Bakap after the GE15 and the state election, Mujibu is confident that voters already have their preferences, adding that they need more precise explanations regarding the direction of the contesting parties.
“... but ultimately, the candidate’s victory also depends on the percentage of voter turnout. By-elections usually have low turnouts. The highest that they could reach is 60 per cent. If tomorrow’s polling can hit 60 per cent compared to the last state election, which reached 76 per cent, then there’s a 16 per cent difference in turnout.”
“So, in this case, we will certainly see the candidate who can dominate the non-Malay votes and fence-sitting votes is the one who can win because this is a straight fight,“ said the senior political science lecturer.
The Sungai Bakap state seat, which has 39,222 regular voters and 57 police personnel, fell vacant following the death of its incumbent, Nor Zamri, on May 24 due to stomach inflammation.
In August last year, Nor Zamri, also Nibong Tebal PAS chairman, defeated PH candidate Nurhidayah Che Rose with a majority of 1,563 votes.
The Sungai Bakap state poll is the eighth by-election since GE15. Previous by-elections were for the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat in Terengganu, the Simpang Jeram state seat and the Pulai parliamentary seat in Johor, the Pelangai state seat in Pahang, the Jepak state seat in Sarawak, the Kemaman parliamentary seat in Terengganu and the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat in Selangor.
