BRUSSELS: After securing NATO’s defence spending pledge to appease Donald Trump, Europe now awaits a crucial US decision on troop withdrawals. Washington is reviewing global military deployments, with reductions in Europe expected in the coming months.
The move has unnerved allies, particularly amid fears that Russia may target a NATO member if the Ukraine war subsides. However, recent talks have eased tensions, with US officials assuring no sudden disruptions.
“We’ve agreed to no surprises and no gaps in the strategic framework of Europe,“ said Matthew Whitaker, US ambassador to NATO. He expects the review to conclude by late summer or early fall.
While past US administrations considered scaling back in Europe to focus on China, Trump has pushed harder for the continent to bolster its own defence. Analysts see withdrawals as inevitable but debate the pace.
“There’s every reason to expect a withdrawal from Europe,“ said Marta Mucznik from the International Crisis Group. “The question is not whether it’s going to happen, but how fast.”
The Pentagon reports nearly 85,000 US troops in Europe, fluctuating since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Officials anticipate gradual reductions rather than abrupt cuts, though key capabilities like air defences remain irreplaceable for now.
Trump may first withdraw residual forces deployed by Biden after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. While manageable, deeper cuts or base closures could trigger alarm.
“The kinds of defence investments by Europe may only be felt in real capability terms over many years,“ said Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund. “So the question of timing really does matter.”
Despite Trump’s tougher stance on Russia, analysts question the timing of any drawdown. Previous attempts to pull troops from Germany failed due to logistical and political hurdles.
European diplomats remain cautiously optimistic but acknowledge unpredictability. Trade disputes or shifting priorities could still strain transatlantic ties.
“It seems positive for now,“ said one diplomat. “But what if we are all wrong and a force decrease starts in 2026? To be honest, there isn’t much to go on at this stage.” - AFP
