KUALA LUMPUR: The International Monetary Fund has maintained its projection for Malaysia’s real gross domestic product growth of 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
According to its October 2025 World Economic Outlook update titled “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim”, the IMF had previously set Malaysia’s 2024 GDP at 5.1%.
For emerging market and developing economies, the IMF has forecast growth to moderate to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 from 4.3% in 2024.
This projection is virtually unchanged from the July World Economic Outlook Update and represents a cumulative upward revision of 0.6 percentage point from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
The forecast is lower than the October 2024 forecast by a cumulative 0.2 percentage point, with low-income developing countries experiencing a larger downward revision than middle-income economies.
Growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to decline from 5.3% in 2024 to 5.2% in 2025 and further to 4.7% in 2026.
For quite a few countries in the region, particularly in ASEAN among the most affected, the evolution of growth forecasts largely mimicked that of effective tariff rates.
In China, the 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised downward by 0.6 percentage point in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, with the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States.
The forecast was then upward by 0.8 percentage point in the July World Economic Outlook Update, following the pause on higher rates in May.
The IMF also stated a stronger-than-expected outturn in the past few quarters, reflecting front-loading in international trade and relatively robust domestic consumption supported by fiscal expansion in 2025.
This more than offset the headwinds from higher uncertainty and tariffs. – Bernama
