Observers describe the break as a deliberate attempt by PAS to reposition itself at the centre of Malay-Muslim politics without committing to any new formal alliance.
PETALING JAYA: PAS’ decision to sever ties with Bersatu has cracked open Malaysia’s opposition bloc, triggering fresh speculation of a Umno-PAS realignment even as analysts caution that the structural fault lines that once sank Muafakat Nasional have not gone away.
Observers describe the break as a deliberate attempt by PAS to reposition itself at the centre of Malay-Muslim politics without committing to any new formal alliance.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the split does not automatically translate into a return to Umno but it has cleared political space for recalibration.
“PAS’ decision to end its political cooperation with Bersatu does open a psychological and strategic pathway towards Umno but it does not necessarily mean PAS is ready to fully return to Umno. For now, PAS is creating new negotiating space.”
Awang Azman said PAS is carefully framing the move under the banner of “ummah unity”, a narrative carrying both ideological weight and tactical value.
“Ummah unity should be interpreted on two levels. On the ideological level, it is consistent with PAS’ long-standing narrative of Malay-Muslim political unity.
“But on the practical level, it also functions as a negotiation tool, allowing PAS to exit Bersatu’s orbit without appearing opportunistic.”
He said structurally little had changed since the collapse of Muafakat Nasional in 2022, when PAS and Umno had previously attempted cooperation before internal tensions derailed the arrangement.
“What has changed is the balance of power. Umno is now seen as more stable than in the preGE15 era while PAS appears keen to align with a party perceived to have a political future.”
Awang Azman warned that Bersatu stood to be the biggest casualty of the realignment, arguing that its political strength had long depended on PAS’ grassroots machinery and religious legitimacy.
“Without PAS, Bersatu risks becoming a Malay elite party lacking traditional grassroots depth. In the long term, this could lead to Bersatu being marginalised as a key vehicle of Malay politics.”
He said the impact on Pakatan Harapan (PH) would depend on whether Malay opposition fragmentation persists or gives way to new consolidation.
“In multi-cornered contests, a PAS-Bersatu split could benefit PH and BN. But if PAS succeeds in forming a new alliance with Umno or creates a one-on-one electoral formula in Malay seats, PH’s position could become more difficult.”
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the development came as no surprise and effectively marks a turning point for Bersatu within the opposition bloc.
He said PAS’ current positioning reflects an implicit recognition that it could not achieve kingmaker status without Umno’s involvement, reviving talk of a possible Muafakat Nasional 2.0 framework.
“I think the discussions, or purported discussions, between Umno and PAS at an informal level suggest that PAS has realised it needs Umno in this equation.
“There is no clear path for PAS to regain kingmaker status without some form of cooperation with Umno. It needs that cooperation.”
He said any revival of cooperation was more likely to emerge at state level first, identifying Negeri Sembilan, Malacca, Pahang and Perak as key battlegrounds where electoral arithmetic could force pragmatic alignment.
“In Negeri Sembilan, where the competition between PH and Barisan Nasional is almost 50-50, PAS could become the deciding factor. The same applies to Malacca, Pahang and Perak, where each side may come to depend on the other.”
Azmi said such dynamics mirrored the original logic of Muafakat Nasional, where Umno and PAS had cooperated after Barisan Nasional lost federal power.
