President Trump’s military threats against Iran raise questions over his long-term goals, as analysts warn of a potential quagmire.
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s threats to attack Iran have sparked intense speculation over his administration’s ultimate objectives. The US leader has deployed warships and fighter jets to the Middle East but has provided little clarity on his endgame.
Will he order surgical strikes against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, target its missile program, or attempt to force regime change in Tehran? Iran has vowed severe reprisals for any attack.
Trump said he would decide in 10 or 15 days whether to order strikes if no nuclear deal is reached. According to Axios, military options presented to him include a direct attack on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The president has repeatedly stated a preference for a diplomatic agreement. He wants a deal addressing Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile capability, and support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Iran has refused to make such concessions. Two recent rounds of indirect talks, in Oman and Switzerland, failed to bridge the gap, with negotiations set to resume.
Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, said the president is “surprised” Iran has not “capitulated” given the US military buildup. Analyst Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute suggests the administration likely aims for a limited conflict.
“The Trump administration most likely aims for a limited conflict that reshapes the balance of power without trapping it in a quagmire,” Vatanka said. He believes Iran expects “a short, high-impact military campaign” to cripple its missile infrastructure.
Trump insists US forces have already destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. The political landscape shifted following a major protest movement in Iran that was violently suppressed in January.
The president has threatened to intervene to “help” the Iranian people but has not acted. He frequently boasts of bringing peace to the Middle East, citing the Gaza ceasefire he brokered.
Trump argues that regime change in Iran would strengthen regional peace dynamics. Opposition Democrats, however, are deeply concerned he is leading America into a violent conflict.
They demand he consult Congress, the sole US body with the authority to declare war. The US military footprint in the region is substantial, with 13 warships currently stationed there.
This force includes the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, nine destroyers, and three frigates. More vessels are en route, including the massive USS Gerald Ford.
The US has also deployed dozens of warplanes and tens of thousands of troops across the Middle East. These assets are potential targets for Iranian retaliation.
Former Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haas questioned the impact of any conflict. “It could just as easily strengthen it as weaken it,” he wrote on Substack, referring to Iran’s government.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate hearing that no one knows what would follow Khamenei’s fall. Gulf Arab monarchies with close ties to Iran have warned Trump against intervention.
They fear reprisal attacks and regional destabilisation. Analyst Mona Yacoubian of CSIS noted Iran is far more complex than Venezuela, which the US attacked in January.
She warned a “decapitation strike” could end up “really unleashing a mess inside of Iran,” due to its diffuse centres of power.
