IN the short period since his election, President Donald Trump has started to tear down the edifice of Western rules-based law and international order.
Ironically, this is the international political and economic system of which the US has been its main beneficiary, definer and enforcer, and over which it has engaged in conflicts and wars around the world since the end of World War II.
Although the US has held a dominant and frequently hegemonic position in the international order (IO), this
system is now rejected by Trump and
his administration as not working sufficiently to the advantage of the US and against the interests of Americans who voted for him and his “make America great again” (Maga) clarion call.
Opening shots against rules-based order
For now, Trump’s targets to skew the global system more to American advantage are:
Making Canada and Greenland (a self-government Danish territory) part of the US or having greater control of these two northern neighbours;
Regaining ownership over the Panama Canal by military or economic force.
His fan club sees this not only as a needed return to the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary, with its territorial expansion and neo-imperialism ideology. It is also touted as a necessity to ensure the security and advancement of the US, and to prevent Russia and China from gaining any foothold in the Western hemisphere.
These opening shots in geopolitics and international relations are being reinforced by Trump’s threat of a soon-to-be-launched tariff war against Canada, Mexico, China and other countries seen as taking advantage of
Joe Biden’s economic policies which, according to Trump, have destroyed
the US economy and reduced it to a failed state.
Targeted are not only countries accused of taking jobs away from the US but also businesses and companies that refuse to move their factories to make America great again.
Speaking to a gathering of the world’s elite at the World Economic Forum in Davos on other nations, he declared: “Three days ago, I took the oath of
office, and we began the golden age of America. And some of the political pundits, even some of my so-called enemies, said it was the most consequential election victory in 129 years.
“Our country will soon be stronger, wealthier and more united than ever before, and the entire planet will be more peaceful and prosperous as a result of this incredible momentum and what we are doing and going to do.”
New charter
What Trump is announcing to Americans and the world contains more than elements of a new security, economic, political and human rights order.
He is essentially proclaiming a new Pax Americana charter to replace the United Nations charter which he and, it should be noted, other US presidents, have consistently violated since its establishment in 1945. However, it is only under Trump that this charter has been explicitly repudiated.
This position can be clearly seen
in his stand against key UN global agreements on health, climate, environment and sustainable development, besides those on peace and security.
For now, US allies in the “free” world are in disarray and awaiting the worst. After unsuccessfully trying to play up to Trump’s ego by lauding his electoral win and leadership qualities, leaders in the United Kingdom, Canada, European Union countries, Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region are scrambling to ensure that they and their countries do not end up as collateral damage in
the next four years of the Trump administration.
To placate Trump on the international security and geopolitical front, Nato and other US allies have
been pushed to raise their defence expenditures to five or more percent
of their budgets.
This doubling or even trebling of military spending for US-allied countries will see weapon manufacturers principally from the US but also other armament exporting countries reap windfall profits. This will make their world more rather than less insecure.
It is a double-edged knife for the US since Russia, China, Turkey and Iran – not exactly allies of the US – will also benefit from an arms sale race.
Unfortunately, the dangers of this contrary scenario is lost to Trump who is boasting that the world will enter a new era of peace under his watch.
G7, Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) and countries that see the US as a big brother and are generally supportive of American foreign policy are now finding that the old IO is being upended for a new Pax Americana, one in which they will have little or no say and which will see their national interests and concerns marginalised or ignored.
They will also find that with Trump’s Maga focus, they will have to comply with policies being formulated in the economic, trade, energy, immigration and other domestic US sectors that will adversely affect their economy and related interests through sanctions and more punishing policies.
In the short and medium term, the most important of the ripple effects of Trump’s “most consequential election victory” outside the US is its impact on the politics and policies of America’s allies.
Leaders of governing parties from the West, espousing inclusive, progressive, liberal or green manifestos, are increasingly being made aware that their political positions stand in contrast to that of Trump and the ruling Republican party, and that his preference is for allies and leaders from the conservative and right wing of the political spectrum.
This preference was clearly showcased to the world during Trump’s inauguration ceremony, which saw conservative leaders such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentine President Javier Milei, along with what Western liberal media often describe as far-right politicians from the UK, Germany, France and other countries invited, some of whom occupied front-row seats.
Prominently missing from the invitee list were top EU leaders as well as those from US allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Canadian prime minister, seen by observers as an outcome of Trump’s repeated personal insults and humiliation – Trump famously referred to Trudeau as “governor” when he proposed that Canada should become the 51st state of the US – should serve as a warning to leaders from the West, including Keir Starmer and Anthony Albanese, and their ruling parties in the UK and Australia.
It is Maga and Pax Americana that they have to support and uphold if they want to continue in power.
Lim Teck Ghee’s Another Take is aimed at demystifying social orthodoxy. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com
