MELBOURNE: Rainfall across Australia’s grain-growing regions in July has improved the outlook for the nation’s 2025 wheat harvest, with traders now forecasting around 33 million tons. The revised estimate was discussed at Wednesday’s Australian Grains Industry Conference, where experts noted the precipitation could help Australia match or exceed last year’s 34 million-ton production.
Benchmark Chicago wheat futures remain near 2020 lows due to ample global supply, and a large Australian crop would maintain downward pressure on prices. Early June forecasts from the agriculture ministry had projected just 30.6 million tons, but recent rains have transformed the outlook.
Mark Lewis, COO of Riordan Grains, observed that weather patterns have shifted favorably. “It feels like the weather patterns have changed and spring looks a lot more positive than it did,“ Lewis said. While some regions like South Australia and Victoria had dry starts, soil moisture levels have improved, with the weather bureau predicting above-average rainfall for most farming areas through October.
Industry consensus now points to stronger production. Cargill director Sam Napier told conference attendees the crop “has to be bigger” than 33 million tons, a view supported by audience polling where over 50% expected final yields to exceed current projections. Analysts revised estimates to 31-34 million tons, with CBH’s Paul Smith noting, “The potential has improved...sentiment would definitely have been different in mid-May.”
Australia has recorded consistently large harvests this decade, with 2019-2024 production averaging 33.8 million tons annually - a 58% increase over the previous five-year average. The combination of favorable weather and advanced farm management continues to strengthen the country’s position as a top wheat exporter. - Reuters
