YEREVAN: A day after arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan announced they were ready to sign a long-awaited peace treaty, scepticism ran high Friday among Yerevan residents, while cautious optimism prevailed in Baku.
The two Caucasus neighbours fought two wars for control of Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated region of Karabakh -- at the end of the Soviet Union and again in 2020 -- before Azerbaijan seized the entire area in a 24-hour offensive in September 2023.
After years of stalled negotiations, both sides announced on Thursday that they had agreed on the text of a comprehensive peace deal and were prepared to sign it.
This would be a major breakthrough in a region where Russia, the European Union, the United States and Turkey all jostle for influence.
But in the capitals of Azerbaijan and Armenia, public reaction remained divided, underscoring lingering tensions between the two ex-Soviet republics.
'Armenia's surrender'
Standing in the shade of a tree in Yerevan’s central Republic Square, where the spring was in full bloom, Arman Sedrakyan, a 38-year-old construction worker, said: “This document is worthless because Azerbaijan will not stop making new demands on Armenia.”
“This treaty won’t stop Azerbaijan if it decides to attack again, should global and regional conditions allow it,“ he told AFP.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has recognised Baku's sovereignty over Karabakh after three decades of Armenian separatist rule, a move seen as a crucial first step towards a normalisation of relations.
But he has faced a domestic backlash for making territorial concessions, including the return of four border villages to Azerbaijan last year.
Anush Minasyan, 42, who sells fruit on the street in a Yerevan suburb, shared Sedrakyan's scepticism.
“This agreement won’t be signed quickly,“ she said. “We heard yesterday that Azerbaijan is demanding that Armenia amend its Constitution, while Pashinyan said a constitutional referendum will take place next year.”
Baku has made clear its expectations that Armenia remove from its constitution a reference to its 1991 declaration of independence, which asserts territorial claims over Karabakh.
Any constitutional amendment would require a national referendum that could further delay the treaty's finalisation.
Some Armenians outright rejected the treaty, viewing it as an act of capitulation.
“This is not a peace treaty but a document of Armenia’s surrender, drafted under threat of war,“ said 62-year-old Nikolay Manukyan.
“Pashinyan is rushing to sign any document just to boost his falling ratings ahead of (parliamentary) elections” scheduled for next year, he alleged.
'Crucial for the future'
On a bustling pedestrian avenue in Baku's historic district lined with baroque and Stalin-era buildings, many supported the agreement, while some remained wary of Armenia's commitment to peace.
“I support peace and believe that normal relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are crucial for the future,“ said 35-year-old translator Ferdowsi Alizadeh.
“It’s encouraging that negotiations on the peace agreement text have been completed.”
But Nizami Aliyev, a 74-year-old retired maths teacher, struck a more cautious note.
“We welcome our government’s peace efforts,“ he said. “We want peace, we need peace, but history forces us to be sceptical.”
“Even if a peace agreement is signed, it will remain (just) on paper: Armenians cannot be trusted.”
Schoolteacher Irada Akhmedova, 26, said she welcomed the prospect of the peace treaty, adding that it was hard to believe that the conflict, “which began even before I was born, is coming to an end”.
“I sincerely hope that Azerbaijan and Armenia will no longer be enemy states, and that innocent people will no longer have to die,“ she said.
While Washington, Brussels and European leaders such as France's President Emmanuel Macron have welcomed the breakthrough, critics argue that the road to genuine reconciliation remains uncertain.
The lingering distrust on both sides suggests that, even if a peace deal is signed, achieving lasting stability in the South Caucasus will require much more than diplomatic agreements.
