Chinese voters in Johor are expected to weigh the federal government’s performance and political stability as they head to the state election, analysts say.
JOHOR BAHRU: Chinese voters in Johor are expected to weigh the federal government’s performance, political stability and national issues as they go to the Johor state election Saturday.
Assistant Professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) Dr Lau Zhe Wei said Pakatan Harapan (PH), unlike during the 2022 Johor election, is now carrying the burden of governing at the federal level, making its performance in Putrajaya an important consideration for voters, including the Chinese community.
“Comparing it with 2022, at that time, Pakatan Harapan (PH) did not really have a government burden. Government burden in the sense that, at the federal level, they were not in power. At the same time, after the move, they could get a lot of sympathy and empathy votes.
“But today, when they are in the federal government, of course we can easily say that is federal and this is state. But many voters do not vote by that rationale. When something happens at the federal level, especially when the issue is big enough, it is going to affect the state (sentiment),” he told Bernama today.
Lau said PH’s biggest challenge is persuading outstation Johoreans, particularly those working in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, to return home to vote in the poll where 2.7 million voters will decide the outcome of 56 seats.
Based on the 2022 Johor election results, he noted that MCA held four seats with comfortable four-digit majorities, while DAP won several constituencies by narrow margins, including Tangkak with fewer than 500 votes.
These marginal seats could become vulnerable if voter turnout resembles the 2022 state election rather than the higher turnout recorded during the 2022 general election, he said.
Of course, they (DAP) would not be like Sabah, where they got no seats, adding that the emergence of Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) could split votes traditionally cast for PH, although its actual electoral strength remains untested.
Lau said developments beyond Johor including national governance, human rights issues and controversies involving federal institutions, were also likely to influence urban Chinese voters, who tend to look beyond constituency-level issues.
“One of the main supporting groups for Pakatan Harapan is urban voters. When we talk about urban voters, they are not looking only at things at the grassroots level. Something that happens outside their area may not be directly relevant to them, but it can still be a point of consideration. So these are among the things that will affect Chinese voters, especially in urban areas,” he added.
However, senior research officer at Merdeka Center Ted Lee said despite frustration over the MADANI government’s certain policies, many Chinese voters remain cautious about abandoning PH because of broader political considerations.
He said Chinese voters in Johor were generally more economically and institutionally conservative than their counterparts in Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Selangor, and had become increasingly concerned over two national issues as the campaign progressed.
“The first concern is whether voting for BN would be interpreted as endorsing cooperation between BN and PAS, especially since PAS has stayed out of a number of constituencies, allowing BN to consolidate Malay votes,” he said.
He added that another concern was whether support for BN could be perceived as backing calls for former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak to receive a royal pardon, adding that these concerns could discourage dissatisfied Chinese voters from switching directly to BN.
On voter priorities, he said many urban Chinese had benefited from major infrastructure projects such as the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link, but continued to struggle with rising living costs.
“They are beneficiaries of infrastructure development, but they are also affected by the rising cost of living. At the same time, many are concerned that changing the political landscape could create uncertainty, and Johor voters generally place a high value on political and economic stability,” he said.
Lee also expects turnout among outstation Johoreans to be lower than during the 2022 general election, saying parliamentary elections generally generate a stronger sense of urgency than state polls.
Of Johor’s more than 2.7 million registered voters, the Chinese community makes up an estimated 30 to 36% of the electorate, or about 810,000 to one million voters. They form the largest voting bloc in around 12 to 14 of the state’s 56 constituencies, mainly in urban and semi-urban areas including Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Batu Pahat, Kluang, Muar and Segamat.
In the 2022 Johor state election, DAP won 10 seats, while MCA captured four Chinese-majority seats – Bekok, Yong Peng, Paloh and Pekan Nanas – all of which were previously held by DAP.
