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Ayer Kuning polls: BN holds advantage, analysts say

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TAPAH: Following the Ayer Kuning state by-election nomination process, the three candidates in the fray immediately began engaging with voters in the constituency.

According to the campaign schedules provided to the media, Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, 54, and Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Abd Muhaimin Malek, 44, had busy itineraries as they engaged with party members and constituents. They concluded their first day of campaigning around 11 pm yesterday.

Bawani KS, 40, the Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) candidate, conducted a walkabout and ran an online campaign from 7 pm to 9 pm.

Political analyst Siti Noranizahhafizah Boyman said all three candidates have strengths, but BN has the upper hand to retain the party’s stronghold.

“They possess strong educational and professional backgrounds and are locals, but the BN is seen as having an advantage in retaining the seat, which it has held for nine terms since 1986,“ she told Bernama.

The senior lecturer and coordinator of the Humanities Cluster at Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (UPSI) said the collaboration between the BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) machinery also provides BN an edge in the battle for votes.

In the 15th General Election, BN’s Ishsam Shahruddin polled 9,088 votes to win with a majority of 2,213 votes. He defeated PH’s Dr Mohd Nazri Hashim, who garnered 6,875 votes, PN’s Muhammad Noor Farid Zainal (6,812 votes), Bawani (586) and Pejuang’s Maziah Salim (105).

However, she cautioned that BN should not become complacent and must strategically tackle local and national issues.

“Based on voter perception surveys, the temple issue has caused some unease among voters, and BN must be wise in handling this matter,“ she said.

Dr Kamaruddin Yaakob, senior lecturer at the Faculty of Islamic Studies and Social Sciences at Universiti Sultan Azlan Shah (USAS), said the MADANI Government’s policies, especially those focused on civil servant welfare through salary increases, are expected to enhance support among public sector employees.

He added that PAS and PN’s focus on 3R (race, religion and royalty) issues and their attempts to stir sentiments around the UMNO-DAP cooperation would likely only appeal to their hardcore supporters.

“These factors may cause young and undecided voters to lean towards BN. In conclusion, BN is expected to retain the seat with over 10,000 votes, depending on voter turnout,“ he said.

The Ayer Kuning seat has 31,897 registered voters, comprising 31,315 ordinary voters and 582 police personnel and their spouses.

Out of the total, 45.9 per cent are voters aged between 18 and 39.

The Ayer Kuning by-election is being held following the death of Ishsam, 58, due to a heart attack on Feb 22.

The Election Commission has set polling for April 26 and early voting for April 22.

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