THE United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a savvy geo-political player in the Middle East, if not the world over. Due respect should be given to them for transforming the likes of Dubai and Abu Dhabi into major economic powerhouse under Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Zayed; often known as MBZ in the media.
But if the UAE, through its ministry of foreign affairs, is urging the Muslim world (and others) to believe that its intention to recognise Israel is none other than to stop further annexation of the occupied territories of Palestine, then UAE may have badly confused seemingly “good intention” with horribly bad policy outcomes.
First of all, Israel has agreed to suspend any further annexation of the occupied West Bank temporarily to pursue this normalisation path with the UAE. But it is just TEMPORARY. There is no guarantee that the annexation will not be continued post Israel-UAE normalisation.
Be that as it may, without a clear scope of Israel’s responsibility – under an as yet unclear agreement between UAE and Israel – what MBZ has started is a process of looking the other way to every infringement that five-term Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done; especially under the blanket protection of the administration of US President Donald Trump.
For example, according to Peace Now – a prominent and fair Israeli activist group promoting a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – during “President Trump’s tenure over the past three years 6,800 new units (yearly average of 2,267 units) have been constructed”.
During his predecessor Barack Obama’s tenure, however, an average 1,805 such units came up in occupied lands.
“Nearly 63% (1,200 housing units) of the new construction was in settlements east of the proposed Geneva Initiative border, i.e. settlements likely to be evacuated in a two-state agreement,” the report said.
It should be noted that the Palestinians have been vying to create a full-fledged future state comprising areas of the West Bank of the River Jordan and Gaza on the Mediterranean coast.
Indeed, the UN considers both the West Bank and East Jerusalem as occupied territories, and considers Israeli settlement-building activity in these areas as illegal by any measure of international law.
Secondly, while UAE may believe that the decision to stop the annexation may rest with the governnent of Netanyahu, the fact is Trump holds the bigger, if not the biggest, say on Israel.
Come Nov 3, there is every possibility that Trump may be defeated by the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee Joseph Biden and vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris any way, potentially by a landslide, too, given how badly Trump has mismanaged the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, causing more than 2.5 million people to be infected by it between February and August, with a death toll of 172, 000 people and counting. Job losses exceeded 40 million in June with little respite since then.
The UAE may have signed an agreement with Israel’s Tera Research agency to provide a lifeline, and a critical access to UAE, on a possible early vaccine; as reported by the national news agency of UAE, which is WAM.
But Netanyahu is facing three criminal charges of fraud and bribery. What ever strengths he may have had in his previous tenure, he is losing them by the day, as Israel is clearly badly hit by the pandemic too.
Precisely due to his weaknesses, Netanyahu may have to call for an election in future too, and the decks of cards may yet change again. Besides, the evidence against Netanyahu are irrefutable.
Between 2009 and 2014 alone, the Israeli settlements under Netanyahu have actually doubled in the illegally occupied Palestinian areas. There are now 450,000 Israeli settlers in Palestinian territories, all of which are against the The Hague Convention that goes all the way back to 1906.
Indeed, as recently as the run-up to the Israeli election in September last year, Netanyahu has further promised to expand the Israeli settlements. Is this the kind of leader, with which UAE would like to recognise Israel? A growingly unpopular Israeli leader, whose fate may yet wobble further, with a new US administration post-Nov 3, 2020?
The UAE should have consolidated the Muslim world first, ideally by creating the Alliance of Muslim Nations, to augment the strength of the entire ummah, which ironically, has been badly represented by the ineffective Organisation of Islamic Conference. United we stand, divided we fall. UAE has made a serious mistake.
One can now only hope that other Muslim countries do not follow in the foot steps of the UAE, as it is not only morally reprehensible, it weakened the two state solution that can guarantee the peace of Israel and Palestine, if not the whole region. As things stand, there are prominent public intellectuals that do dare to take the correct stance. Two Moroccan writers, Zahra Rameej and Abu Yusuf Taha, have withdrawn their nominated works for the Sheikh Zayed Book Award 2020 after the UAE’s agreement with Israel.
Dr Rais Hussin is president and CEO of EMIR Research, an independent think tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research
