TOKYO: Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year and at a faster pace than expected, data for the March quarter showed yesterday, under-scoring the fragile nature of its recovery now under threat from US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The data highlights the challenge policymakers face as steep US tariffs cloud the outlook for the export-heavy economy, particularly for the mainstay automobiles sector.
Real GDP contracted an annualised 0.7% in January-March, preliminary government data showed, much bigger than a median market forecast for a 0.2% drop.
The decline was due to stagnant private consumption and falling exports, suggesting the economy was losing support from overseas demand even before Trump’s announcement on April 2 of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs.
The data did highlight some brighter aspects, which included GDP growth being revised up slightly to 2.4% from 2.2% for the final quarter of last year.
Capital expenditure rose a faster-than-expected 1.4%, helping domestic demand add 0.7 percentage point to GDP growth.
Overall, however, analysts were cautious about the softer demand impulse and risks to the outlook from a Trump-led change to the global trade order.
“Japan‘s economy lacks a driver of growth given weakness in exports and consumption. It’s very vulnerable to shocks such as one from Trump tariffs,“ said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
“The data may lead to growing calls for bigger fiscal spending,“ he said, adding the economy could contract again in the second quarter depending on when the hit from tariffs intensifies.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.2% compared with market forecasts for a 0.1% contraction.
Japan’s Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa said big pay hikes offered by companies will likely underpin a moderate economic recovery, but warned of risks to the outlook.
“We must be mindful of downside risks to the economy from US tariff policy. The hit to consumption and household sentiment from continued price rises is also a risk to growth,“ Akazawa told a news conference after the GDP data.
Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s economic output, was flat in the first quarter, compared with market forecasts for a 0.1% gain.
The GDP deflator, which shows the extent to which firms are able to pass on rising costs, rose 3.3% in January-March from year-before levels, accelerating for second straight quarters.
But external demand shaved 0.8 point off GDP as exports fell 0.6% and imports rose 2.9%, even before the impact of Trump tariffs begins to materialise in full force.
Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all countries except Canada, Mexico and China, along with higher tariff rates for many big trading partners, including Japan, which faces a 24% tariff rate starting in July unless it can negotiate a deal with the US.
Washington has also imposed 25% levies on cars, steel and aluminium, dealing a huge blow to Japan’s economy that relies heavily on automobile exports to the US.
Japanese automakers are already feeling the pain.
Toyota Motor said it expects profit to decline by a fifth in the current financial year. Mazda held off disclosing earnings estimates for the current year through March 2026 due to uncertainty over US trade policy.
“The early-year GDP contraction serves as a reminder of Japan’s economic struggles. Tariff pain and weak domestic momentum will weigh on growth in the quarters ahead,“ said Stefan Angrick, head of Japan and Frontier markets Economics, Moody’s Analytics. – Reuters
