Upcoming Bangladesh elections test fraying ties with India as China expands its strategic footprint in the region.
NEW DELHI: Bangladesh’s pivotal elections next week could significantly alter South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Analysts warn the vote may accelerate Dhaka’s strategic pivot towards Beijing while relations with traditional partner India remain strained.
The February 12 poll is the first since a 2024 uprising toppled former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. India’s decision to shelter Hasina, despite extradition requests, has angered Dhaka’s current interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
This friction has prompted the interim government to deepen engagement with China and Pakistan. Yunus’s first state visit was to China, signalling a clear strategic shift.
“The interim government in Bangladesh, and a future government, is really pivoting to China,” said Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that Bangladesh has become central to China’s strategic thinking regarding the Bay of Bengal.
In January, the two countries signed a key defence agreement for a drone plant near India. “Whatever the outcomes of the elections, there is an irreversible possibility of further deepening Bangladesh-China relations,” said University of Dhaka’s Delwar Hussain.
Conversely, ties with India have deteriorated. New Delhi has condemned what it called “unremitting hostility against minorities” in Bangladesh, pointing to 2025 sectarian violence.
Dhaka has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence. Relations further soured when a Bangladeshi cricketer was removed from the Indian Premier League, leading to Bangladesh’s withdrawal from a World Cup event in India.
Despite the tensions, analysts suggest both sides may adopt a pragmatic approach. “Both New Delhi and Dhaka are fully aware of the costs of not addressing the deteriorating relations,” said Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group.
Dhaka has also resumed direct flights with Pakistan, India’s arch-rival, after more than a decade. Experts believe a new government will likely continue normalising ties with Islamabad without severing relations with New Delhi.
“The new dispensation will likely prioritise stability over disruption,” Donthi added. Retired diplomat Hyumayun Kabir predicted ties could stabilise under an elected government, especially if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party wins.
The material foundations of the India-Bangladesh relationship remain intact. Trade has stayed stable, and only one major bilateral deal from the Hasina era has been scrapped.
“China delivers infrastructure in a way India cannot,” said former Indian diplomat Dilip Sinha. “But India provides things Bangladesh critically needs — power and yarn for the garment industry.”
Ultimately, analysts suggest stronger ties with China need not mean hostilities with India. “It is not an either-or situation,” Kabir concluded. “Both relationships can thrive at the same time.”
