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‘Barisan victories in by-elections no surprise’

Beyond legacy, coalition’s strong alliance with GRS proves decisive in securing commanding margins, says academic

PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) victories in the Kinabatangan parliamentary and Lamag state by-elections were widely anticipated.

Beyond legacy, the coalition’s strong alliance with the current Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) state government proved decisive in securing commanding margins.

Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan described BN’s wins as a “resurgence”, highlighting the significant margins compared with the 2025 state election and the 2022 general election.

“BN retaining both Kinabatangan and Lamag was expected. What stood out, however, whether surprising or not, was the significantly larger majority compared with previous elections.

“The late Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin did not secure particularly large majorities before, especially in Lamag.”

Azmi said votes cast as a tribute to him contributed to BN’s strong performance, particularly given the coalition’s role in the state government.

However, he added: “BN requires a strong ally, and in this case, that ally is GRS. 

“This was especially evident in Lamag, where GRS supporters turned out to vote for BN, even if not in the numbers initially expected. This reflects the cooperation between the two coalitions and reinforces the perception that BN is part of the state government.”

Azmi said BN’s long-term success in Sabah hinges on maintaining strong partnerships with local parties rather than relying on Pakatan Harapan (PH). 

“Despite BN and GRS contesting against each other in the last state election, the results show that BN needs to relearn how to assert dominance in Sabah politics. That requires a strong alliance with GRS.”

He said while BN may contest solo in upcoming elections, “solo” does not mean standing alone.

Regarding an alliance with PH, Azmi said the coalition plays a minor role in Sabah, where the primary challenge comes from local parties, particularly GRS, in countering Warisan’s influence.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Romzi Ationg said elected representatives must prioritise consistent service delivery, transparent communication, cost-of-living relief and visible constituency engagement.

“Demonstrating integrity and responsiveness beyond election cycles is crucial to building trust steadily among diverse voters.”

He said with BN’s victors being young, voters are increasingly demanding tangible results over legacy politics.

“Entrenched networks in rural areas mean change won’t happen overnight and progress is likely to be incremental rather than abrupt.”

Romzi also flagged policies dealing with affordable living, education and skills training as well as rural connectivity as issues that resonate across generations.

On infrastructure promises, such as the Pan Borneo Highway in Kinabatangan, he said delivery must be paired with clear timelines, open procurement, regular updates and independent oversight to ensure efficiency and maintain public trust.

Mohd Kurniawan Naim Moktar, son of the late Bung Moktar, won the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat with 19,852 votes, a majority of 14,214. 

Mohd Kurniawan described his victory as a reflection of the growing democratic maturity of the Kinabatangan electorate. 

“This mandate comes with great responsibility. I pledge to work for the community that has chosen me. I was elected based on various policies and I will carry out this duty with full commitment.”

He added that while the role of an elected representative is not permanent, he remains committed to serving the people sincerely.

Mohd Ismail Ayob, commonly known as Miha, secured 7,269 votes to claim the Lamag state seat.

Miha said his election would allow him to bring the people’s voice to a higher platform.

“My experience working with NGOs will strengthen my role as an assemblyman.”

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