Sweden’s military intelligence chief says Russia is increasing hybrid warfare activities and taking greater risks in the region, regardless of the Ukraine war’s outcome.
STOCKHOLM: Russia has escalated its hybrid threat activities and appears willing to take greater risks in Sweden and the surrounding region, according to the head of Sweden’s military intelligence.
Thomas Nilsson, head of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST), stated that Russia has “in certain cases, stepped up actions and increased its presence” near Sweden. He added that Moscow would “unfortunately” continue this behaviour regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
“A certain desperation can set in, where you push even harder to reach your goals,” Nilsson said, referring to Russia. He warned that a Russian success in Ukraine could also lead to “an increased appetite for risk.”
The agency’s annual threat review, released on Tuesday, detailed Russia’s development of a wide range of hybrid warfare methods. These methods include disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, economic sanctions, intelligence operations, and election interference.
Nilsson highlighted Russia’s readiness to engage in what he termed “advanced sabotage.” This includes assassination plots, serious arson, and attacks on critical societal infrastructure.
The MUST review identified Russia as the primary military threat to both Sweden and NATO. It stated this threat is likely to grow as Russia increases resources for its armed forces.
The agency noted that Russia is reinforcing its resources in the strategically vital Baltic Sea region. This military build-up “has already begun,” according to the review, though its pace will be affected by the war in Ukraine and Russia’s economic relations.
So far, the review noted, the most risk-prone sabotage and hybrid actions have mainly affected other NATO allies. However, Nilsson confirmed that Sweden’s overall security situation has continued to deteriorate in recent years.
The intelligence assessment was released as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for fresh talks in Geneva.
