PARIS: A landmark study published in *The Lancet* warns that over 14 million people, including 4.5 million children under five, could die by 2030 due to drastic cuts in US foreign aid initiated by the Trump administration. The research, released as global leaders gather for a UN aid conference in Seville, Spain, highlights the life-saving impact of now-terminated USAID programmes.
Until January 2025, USAID provided 40% of global humanitarian funding. Following Trump’s return to office, advisor Elon Musk described dismantling the agency as putting it “through the woodchipper.” The 83% budget reduction risks reversing two decades of global health progress, according to Barcelona Institute for Global Health researcher Davide Rasella, a co-author of the study.
The team analyzed data from 133 countries, finding USAID prevented 91 million deaths between 2001-2021. Their projections show current cuts could cause 700,000 annual child deaths. USAID-backed programmes reduced under-five mortality by 32% and overall deaths by 15%, with particularly strong results against HIV/AIDS (65% fewer deaths) and malaria.
Germany, UK and France have since announced similar aid reductions. ISGlobal’s Caterina Monti warned these EU cuts may compound fatalities. Researchers stress outcomes could improve if funding resumes, noting USAID previously cost Americans just 17 cents daily.
As the Seville conference proceeds without US representation, co-author James Macinko of UCLA urged reconsideration: “Most would support USAID if they knew how effectively small contributions save millions.”
