Chinese automaker BYD is poised to surpass Tesla in global EV sales for 2025, with 2.07 million units sold by November against Tesla’s projected 1.65 million
NEW YORK: Chinese automotive giant BYD is on track to officially surpass Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle company by annual sales in 2025.
Final figures for the year are expected soon, with BYD having sold 2.07 million EVs by the end of November. Tesla, meanwhile, had sold 1.22 million units by the end of September.
A FactSet consensus projects Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales will fall to 449,000 vehicles. This would give Tesla approximately 1.65 million sales for the full year, a 7.7% drop.
Deutsche Bank projects an even weaker quarter for Tesla, forecasting just 405,000 EV sales. The bank sees Tesla’s sales down by around one-third in both North America and Europe, and by one-tenth in China.
Industry analysts attribute part of Tesla’s challenge to the expiration of a key US tax credit. A $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers ended in September under legislation backed by President Donald Trump.
Even before the credit ended, Tesla faced sales struggles in key markets. These were linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political support for Trump and other far-right politicians.
“We believe Tesla will see some weakness on deliveries” in the fourth quarter, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. He added that sales of 420,000 would be “good enough to show stable demand.”
BYD has also faced challenges, particularly with profitability in its home market due to price-wary consumers. The company has sought to strengthen its foothold in foreign markets in response.
“BYD is one of the pioneers to establish overseas production capacity and supply chains for EVs,” Jing Yang, Director of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, told AFP.
Yang noted that its geographical diversification is likely to help it “navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment.”
Overseas rivals have criticised Chinese state subsidies that allow BYD to sell vehicles cheaply. The US has imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese EV imports, while Europe has also imposed tariffs.
Despite the sales shift, analysts see potential growth avenues for Tesla. Autonomous technology is expected to play an increasingly important role for the company.
“As Tesla really begins to roll out eyes-off features and expand FSDs capability, if they do that successfully, that should generate more demand for their vehicles,” said analyst Michaeli of TD Cowen.
Musk has said the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will begin production in April 2026. The company has also unveiled lower-priced versions of its Models 3 and Y that could boost future sales.
